The Knicks' 2020 NBA Draft is finally complete, and they walked away with two players: Dayton power forward Obi Toppin and Kentucky combo-guard Immanuel Quickley. It is far too early to grade a draft or its players before they even take the floor in the NBA, but it is fair to look at the players the team took, evaluate their strengths and weaknesses, and analyze the process the Knicks took to acquire them.
Obi Toppin – 22 years old, 6'9, 6'11 wingspan, 220 pounds, Dayton University
Toppin plays like Amar'e Stoudemire on both ends of the floor. Offensively, he is an elite rim runner with straight ahead and vertical explosive ability to get to and finish with a high percentage level at the rim. He is a strong cutter and can finish well above the rim running the floor in transition. Toppin is a legitimate rookie of the year candidate and is one of the more polished offensive players in the draft.
He has flashed shooting ability, making 39 percent of his three-point shots last year at Dayton on only 2.6 attempts per game. His range extends to the NBA three-point line. He shoots just over 70 percent from the free throw line. He can stretch the floor at the power forward position though it will be important to see him shoot at a higher volume.
Toppin is also an underrated passer and could become a player that can have the offense run through him in the high and low post. Toppin's passing also gives him a secondary weapon if he is met before the rim on the receiving end of pick-and-rolls. He could develop a nice chemistry with Mitchell Robinson sharing the ball near the rim.
So why did he slip all the way to eight? He is also Amar'e Stoudemire defensively. Toppin has very tight hips and has trouble changing direction and moving laterally in space. He could be targeted relentlessly in pick-and-roll. Despite being a smart player on offense, he often makes poor reads as a help-defender and makes bad decisions against the screen-and-roll. He has not shown the strength inside to be a consistent rebounder.
The best-case scenario for the Knicks is that Toppin compliments Robinson well on offense with his ability to spread the floor, even if they mimic one another's rim running ability. On defense, Robinson can help his rim protection deficiencies. Perhaps Thibodeau can help hide Toppin's deficiencies through his schemes, or tap into his basketball IQ to help him with his angles and other nuances defensively to make up for his poor lateral movement skills.
The worst-case scenario is his jumper does not translate to a more high-volume three-point shooter – as an older prospect, he does not have nearly as much room to develop as the teenagers that get drafted – and his defense is so poor it is impossible to construct winning lineups around him. It will also be necessary to acquire a strong playmaking point guard to take advantage of some of his best offensive skills.
There are legitimate fears that the worst-case scenario will come to pass and the Knicks will regret passing on the very well-rounded Deni Avdija, who was also available at eighth overall. Toppin will have to prove he can improve enough defensively where he becomes merely passable and not a liability that is impossible to work around. Avdija was the third player on my Knicks board, while Toppin was 13th.
Immanuel Quickley – 21 years old, 6'3, 6'8 wingspan, 188 pounds, University of Kentucky
Quickley checks many boxes teams look for in a player. He is an excellent shooter who hit 43 percent of his three-point shots on nearly five attempts per game. He also got to the free throw line five times per game and made 92 percent of his free throws. He did most of his damage as a shooter (36.7 percent of his possessions), finishing in the 84th percentile as a spot-up shooter, according to Synergy. He was better shooting off the dribble (56 percent FG) than off the catch (36 percent FG). He ranked in the 85th percentile as a scorer as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, but he only had 34 possessions in that role.
He is a strong defender with excellent length to guard both guard positions. He was unselfish at Kentucky and bought into the team concept. He was even able to score in isolation situations, making half his shots (8-of-16), which put him in Synergy's 100th percentile. He did struggle to finish around the rim due to his lack of high-level athleticism.
Quickley might struggle guarding some of the bigger wings in the NBA but he has 3-and-D potential. He was recruited to Kentucky as a point guard but was moved to an off-ball role there. He has not flashed enough high-level playmaking to make someone confident he could be a full-time NBA point guard early in his career.
The Knicks may regret passing on players like Tyrell Terry, Desmond Bane, Malachi Flynn, and RJ Hampton (if they stayed at 23) who were also available when Quickley was selected. He might have still been on the board at 33, a selection the Knicks later traded away.
The Process
The one part of the Knicks draft that's hard not to like is how the team turned the 38th and 27th overall picks into the 33rd and 25th overall picks. Knicks Vice President of Basketball and Strategic Planning Brock Aller had his finger prints on two trades that helped improve both of their selections without giving up anything of value. They were the type of trades and asset optimization that the Knicks have not done in the past. It was odd for the Knicks to trade the 38th and 27th picks for the 23rd pick so early in the day without knowing who would be available, but they might have had a potential trade-up in mind with the Cavaliers.
The Knicks would then trade the 33rd overall pick in the draft to the Clippers for the Pistons' 2023 second round pick. The Knicks had seven picks in the 2020 and 2021 drafts, and there was no way they would ever be able to roster that many players in a two-year span. One way to solve a logjam of picks is to trade current picks for future ones in years where the Knicks do not own as many additional picks. The Pistons' pick should be at the top of the second round. This part of the Knicks process was good.
It wasn't all good, though. The Knicks were reported throughout the day to be engaging the Cavaliers for the 5th overall pick to move up to trade for Toppin. It became obvious to anyone paying attention he was the Knicks' target, which is disappointing given how well Leon Rose had been at hiding his intentions with his previous front office hires. Moving up for Toppin would have been a mistake given the small separation of talent between picks 5 and 8, and the strong possibility a player better or just as good would have been available at 8th without moving at all.
The other disturbing trend was the Knicks' decision to pick players they had connections to. Toppin was a CAA client and is being repped by Leon Rose's son. Quickley was coached by Knicks assistant Kenny Payne and has connections to Worldwide Wes, who is tight with John Calipari. Were these picks by Walt Perrin and his scouts, or by Leon Rose and William Wesley for reasons other than basketball? The picks could have very well been made for solely basketball reasons, but given the Knicks' past issues with targeting CAA clients and other players with personal connections, it is a potential red flag to keep an eye on for future moves.
Conclusion
If I were the Knicks General Manager, I thought it would have been very easy for me to select Deni Avdija at 8th overall, either Desmond Bane or Tyrell Terry at 25th overall, and then Quickley (if he was still available), Isaiah Joe, Grant Riller, Jahmius Ramsay, Xavier Tillman, or Robert Woodard with the 33rd pick. I think it is a better return than Toppin and Quickley. We'll know in a couple of years whether the Knicks made the right decisions on the players they selected or not.
Next Steps
I'll present a more thorough free agent preview tomorrow, but the Knicks will have to focus on a couple areas moving forward given their draft decisions. Free agency begins Friday at 6 P.M. with deals allowed to become official on Sunday at noon.
1. Acquire a point guard. The Knicks do not have a true point guard outside of Dennis Smith Jr., Jared Harper and Frank Ntilikina (who I consider more of a combo guard right now). They need one to run their team and maximize Obi Toppin's skill set. Look at teams that have stocked point guards like New Orleans (Lonzo Ball, Kira Lewis Jr., George Hill, and Eric Bledsoe).
2. Obi Toppin and Julius Randle will play exactly the same role. They cannot co-exist. Toppin is an older player that needs to play right away. Randle will either need to sit on the bench or get traded, though his value will be limited in any trade discussions.
3. The Knicks still need more shooters. Quickley will help but they will also have to add some wings in free agency that can also shoot the ball.
I'll have more on Toppin and Quickley as I watch more video of them, but free agency will be the next shoe to drop. I'll have my preview up Friday morning.
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