The Knicks play their first preseason game on Friday night in Detroit, followed by a rematch on Sunday. By Monday, there might be an idea as to how Tom Thibodeau is going to use this roster, and what his starting lineup and overall rotation may look like.
Until then, all we have is dissecting his press conferences and public comments about players. In other words, we have nothing.
So, before all this gets started, here is my ideal rotation for the Knicks this year, within logical reason. It will surely not be what Tom Thibodeau ends up doing, but it would be the most fun for fans to watch and help accomplish the team’s goals of finding out about its young players.
Starting Lineup
PG Frank Ntilikina
SG RJ Barrett
SF Alec Burks
PF Obi Toppin
C Mitchell Robinson
What I look for in all the lineups I put together is a balance of playmaking, shooting, defense, and scoring. This is the best combination I could come up with that balances those attributes and gives the Knicks young players a chance to play major minutes against their opponent’s starters.
I’m not sure Frank Ntilikina is even a point guard anymore.
He might be more of a combo-guard and defensive specialist. The fact he does not need the ball in his hands all the time is precisely why I put him with RJ Barrett, Alec Burks and Obi Toppin. Ntilikina is also the best shooter of the Knicks point guards, believe it or not. He can help spread the floor (if his jumper improves) and defend the opponent’s best player.
Barrett and Burks can help take some of the playmaking responsibility here from Ntilikina and run pick-and-rolls with Toppin and Robinson. This gives Barrett a chance to be the engine of the offense more often and see what he can do as a creator and distributor. Barrett needs to be the featured offensive player for large stretches this season.
I put Toppin with the starters for two reasons: I do not want Julius Randle sucking up so many possessions with RJ Barrett on the floor, and I also want Toppin’s shooting on the floor to help space when pick-and-roll plays happen with Robinson as the roller to the hoop. Toppin should be able to make threes, unlike Randle, who would just clog the paint.
Robinson is the defensive anchor inside that helps Toppin, who is still learning in that area. With Ntilikina anchoring the perimeter, Robinson protecting the rim, and two competent wing defenders in Barrett and Burks, this should be a good enough defensive lineup.
Second Team
PG Dennis Smith Jr.
SG Austin Rivers
SF Reggie Bullock
PF Julius Randle
C Nerlens Noel
Knicks fans love to claim they are featuring veteran players for potential trades. So, I present to you the second unit to start the 2020-2021 season!
Dennis Smith Jr. has too much talent not to be given a shot to see if he can resurrect his career. He can be the primary ball handler with this group and run pick-and-roll with Noel, and Randle if Tom Thibodeau can get him to roll hard to the rim once in a while.
Rivers provides some stability and additional ball-handling in the back-court, with some shooting ability. He would be a stabilizing influence with this group and would be given the tougher of the two guard matchups on defense, so DSJ can focus on his offense to start the year.
Bullock adds wing defense and much needed shooting to this group, and would cover the best wing player on the other team. Randle would be the secondary scoring option here, and should be able to be more of a dominant player against back-ups. He could still average between 15-20 points in this role, and potentially be more efficient than last season while doing it.
Noel is the perfect back-up to Mitchell Robinson, with his rim protection and rim-running ability. He could pair with Dennis Smith Jr. on pick-and-rolls and be a defensive anchor with this group.
Every single one of these players would be a potential trade target throughout the year to acquire future assets. If Smith Jr. can play well, he might have value across the league; Bullock could be a three-and-D player on a cheap contract for a good team; Rivers could be a versatile back-up guard; Randle’s semi-expiring deal could be an asset; and Noel could be a good back-up center for a playoff team.
Once these players are traded, youngsters like Kevin Knox and Immanuel Quickly would be ready to step in and play more significant minutes. Both those players could also earn more permanent rotation spots if their play in practice dictates it. Elfrid Payton is there just in case DSJ absolutely falls apart.
If I had to bet, Omari Spellman and Jacob Evans will not make the final roster. I don’t see how Spellman can earn playing time at power forward ahead of Randle or Toppin, and with Knox’s future likely as a stretch four, they have somewhat overlapping skillsets too. Evans has not been able to find his way on the floor since being drafted.
It is also possible that Thibodeau plays more players in a deeper rotation due to more back-to-backs, potential COVID complications, and a faster pace that might necessitate more frequent substitutions. If so, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Ignas Brazdeikis would be my guesses for the final two roster spots, though Spellman has a chance to make it over Brazdeikis, who may not have the mobility to play wing in the NBA.
We’ll see what Thibodeau is thinking this weekend when the Knicks play their first games in nine months. It should give Knicks fans some clue as to what their team might looks like in the 2020-2021 season. For kicks, here is my PREDICTION for what Tom Thibodeau’s eventual starting lineup and bench rotation will look like:
Starter
PG Dennis Smith Jr.
SG RJ Barrett
SF Alec Burks
PF Julius Randle
C Nerlens Noel
Reserves
PG Elfrid Payton
SG Austin Rivers (Frank Ntilikina if Rivers is still hurt)
SF Reggie Bullock
PF Obi Toppin
C Mitchell Robinson
Check out the most recent episode of The Bank Shot, my Knicks podcast, where I talk with NBA National Writer Keith Smith from Yahoo Sports. You can subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher.
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