The first days of free agency have come and gone, and unless you were looking closely it would have been easy to miss that the Knicks were participating at all. They walked away from the weekend adding Nerlens Noel, Alec Burks and Austin Rivers, re-signing Elfrid Payton, and trading for Omari Spellman and Jacob Evans.
It was an underwhelming haul since the Knicks had the second-most salary cap space entering free agency. Given the marketplace and the state of the franchise, it was also the most prudent course the Knicks could have taken.
The 2020 free agency class was one of the weakest in recent memory. The top two unrestricted free agents, Fred VanVleet and Gordon Hayward, had one All-Star appearance between them. VanVleet never seriously considered the Knicks due to their rebuilding status, and received a reasonable four-year, $85 million contract from the Raptors. The Knicks were reportedly willing to offer him a similar deal, but that would not have enticed him to leave Toronto for New York.
Hayward received a whopping $120 million over four seasons from Charlotte. Given Hayward's injury history, age and declining production (when compared to his peak) the past few seasons, it is a contract too fraught with risk for a team like the Knicks that is so far away from meaningful contention.
Neither deal would have made sense for the Knicks. Even if they had managed to land both players, (which would have been impossible unless they cleared additional cap space) they would have barely elevated themselves to a bottom seed in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. Those moves also would have eliminated any future salary cap flexibility for the next four seasons.
Joe Harris ($75 million over four seasons from Brooklyn), Bogdan Bognanovic (four years and $72 million), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($40 million over three years), Davis Bertans ($80 million over five seasons) all would have helped the Knicks improve but not in any meaningful way.
Signing large long-term contracts also would have hamstrung the Knicks from taking that next step from fringe playoff team to true contender. The team would have players with contracts so prohibitive they would not be valuable in trades. The team's draft pick in 2021 would be in the late lottery and very unlikely to land a true star. They would have little cap space to be a plausible destination in free agency. They would be stuck in no-man's land with no way out in sight.
The Knicks approached this offseason exactly the right way: They set specific values for each player on the market and refused to go above what they thought was appropriate. Whether targeting a top player or an average player, they did not want to wind up with a contract that would be impossible to move in the future without attaching an asset to it.
Instead they wound up with the following: (#'s according to published reports):
• Austin Rivers – 3-year contract for $10 million (only the first year is guaranteed)
• Nerlens Noel – 1-year contract for $5 million
• Alec Burks: 1-year contract for $6 million
• Elfrid Payton: 1-year contract for $5 million
All of those contracts are excellent values and could be assets as the trade deadline approaches. Some of those players have been traded at the deadline in recent years to net draft picks. They have value in the NBA.
The Knicks also maintain around $18.5 million of cap space, pending confirmation of contract details. The additional cap space will make consummating trades easier once the season begins because it will allow the team to absorb larger salaries into their cap space, while sending smaller ones, or none at all, out.
As depressing as it may be for Knicks fans to accept, despite all of their recent losing, the franchise is still at the very beginning of their rebuilding period. They do not have a player on their roster that could be with any reasonable confidence the best or second-best player on a good team. A team in that situation is not in any position to spend big money on non-stars that prevent the team from adding true stars in the future, whether in free agency or the draft.
The Suns were able to be so aggressive in their pursuit of Chris Paul because they drafted and developed the likes of Devin Booker, DeAndre Ayton and Mikal Bridges. The Hawks drafted Trae Young and have other young players, like John Collins and Clint Capela, that they had enough confidence in to sign players like Danilo Gallinari, Rajon Rondo and Kris Dunn to multi-year contracts. RJ Barrett has promise, but he has not shown to have the same type of star power as Devin Booker or Trae Young.
Barrett, Obi Toppin, or Mitchell Robinson can potentially become one of those players. The Knicks potential first-round pick in 2021, which is a loaded draft class, could also be a player of that caliber.
The best thing a team like the Knicks can do is to maintain as much future flexibility as possible, while adding future draft assets and young players to give them the best chance possible to landing those types of players in the future. Between moves made on draft night and in the first few days of free agency, the Knicks acquired four additional second-round picks. For the first time, they have a front office that seems to understand how to maximize their assets.
By focusing on signing veteran role players on one-year contracts, the Knicks are giving themselves not only a great chance to draft a great player next season, but also attack a superior free agent class. Based on current projections, only the Knicks and Spurs are projected to have enough salary cap space to sign two max free agents. While it is true that a lone star would be hesitant to join a team with as little established talent and a history of losing as the Knicks, having space for two changes the equation a bit.
It gives Leon Rose the opportunity to use his connections to find a pair of stars to team up to come to New York together. If the team's young core does well enough this year to show they could round out a good roster, it could be an attractive destination for a pair of stars to build a winner in New York City. The Knicks could then use whatever salary exceptions available to add other veterans, or even package draft picks and younger players for another veteran impact player.
Potential free agents in 2021 include Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James (player option), Kawhi Leonard (player option), Paul George (player option) and Victor Oladipo. Potential restricted free agents include Lonzo Ball, Jonathan Isaac, Lauri Markkanen, John Collins and OG Anunoby. There's a good chance none of those players choose New York, but there's a chance one or two could.
There will be a lot of options. Is there any guarantee the Knicks land any of these premium players? There are no guarantees in NBA free agency. Ultimately, teams are depending on personal decisions by individuals that they have little control over. The odds they land any of that group probably aren't very good. Their decisions this offseason, however, keep them in the game and provide possibilities that were not available this summer. There is a much better chance of success then there was this summer.
If it doesn't work out, they can use that space the same way they are this offseason: acquiring future assets and improving the chances of a successful future. It isn't suggesting a long term "The Process" style rebuild, but rather a strategic patience to not force what isn't there. Doing that can destroy all the preparation and asset building the team has done the past two seasons.
Some fans complain that they are tired of waiting, and the team cannot lose forever. Their pain is understandable and the second part of the statement is true. But it is important to note that while the Knicks have not won more than 37 games in the past seven seasons, they have not been rebuilding for that long.
Carmelo Anthony has only been off the roster for three seasons, and the salaries that came as a result of his trade for two. This is only the second offseason that the team has had significant cap space. The team only traded Kristaps Porzingis a season-and-a-half ago, which signaled the rebuild clock was slowed down again, if not reset completely, since the best player on the roster had been moved for future assets. The Knicks' past front offices also often failed to make forward-looking moves, develop players and operate like a rebuilding team.
Past mistakes, going back as far as giving Carmelo Anthony his second contract with the team, has slowed this process considerably. But that should not be held against the new front office and coaching staff, which is coming in with a clean slate and a fresh look at the roster and the state of the organization.
Due to the nature of the free agent class, Leon Rose and his team saw few opportunities this offseason to make additions that would meaningfully improve the team. The ones that did present themselves did not work out due to player preference or the Knicks properly prioritizing good contract value over simply adding talent regardless of the cost.
The Knicks decisions were the right ones, and were mostly dictated by the players available on the open-market and their eventual cost. A team shouldn't force a plan or timetable on a real-world situation where that plan is not feasible. The Knicks didn't and managed the free agent process as best as they could have.
They are pushing their opportunity back another year, while maintaining the ability to add more future assets by trading their free agent acquisitions or using their cap space to absorb unwanted contracts. If they can do that, draft a potential star in 2021 and make some noise in free agency the next two summers, waiting another season or two will be worth it for every Knicks fan frustrated with a quiet offseason.
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