If you've read my work at all in the past six months, you know my general theory as to how the Knicks should proceed. I believe they are still in the beginning of a rebuild with no one on the roster the organization knows with any certainty is going to be a franchise-level player.
Most NBA teams are built starting with a high-level drafted homegrown player, with some exceptions. Once that player is in place, it should be easier to attract a player via free agency. At that point, a team can begin to leverage other assets to acquire another veteran star via trade. It's not the only path, but it is the most feasible one. It doesn't mean it is easy.
The Knicks are in good position. They have salary cap space, a number of players on their roster still on rookie contracts, and an abundance of additional draft picks in future drafts. This advantageous position will only last for so long. Leon Rose has a fairly small window to make the most of their current situation. It will be a difficult needle for him to thread.
Next summer, the Knicks' cap situation begins to get cloudy. The Knicks will have to extend Mitchell Robinson or risk him becoming an unrestricted free agent in 2022. They will also have to make decisions on Frank Ntilikina and Dennis Smith Jr., who will be entering unrestricted free agency with large cap holds. A decision will have to be made on Kevin Knox's fourth year. Any players acquired this offseason on multi-year contracts will take up cap space along with any drafted players. The cap is unlikely to rise, making the 2021 season the one that provides the most flexibility to add multiple stars.
The Knicks' assets also begin to dissipate after next summer. The Knicks have an additional first-round pick in the 2020 draft, and two additional picks in 2021. They own the Mavericks' pick, which, barring an injury to Luka Doncic, will be in the mid-to-late twenties, and two second-round picks from the Hornets and Pistons.
After the 2021 draft, the Knicks own all their own selections but only have one additional pick: the Mavericks' 2023 first round pick, which is protected for the Top 10 through 2025. They will have all their previously-drafted players available to trade along with their own picks, but their bag of additional picks will be all but depleted.
This timeline dictates that next summer is the time to strike. They have the most draft picks to trade, cap space in a loaded free agent class, and a lot of young players on the roster to build around or move in a trade. Leon Rose has to get the franchise in the best possible position to make the most of their opportunity.
If there were better free agents available in this summer's class, the conversation might be different. But the lack of stars available via free agency, and the thought that young stars under long-term contracts are unlikely to become available through trades, makes this summer and this season best used as preparation for 2021 and beyond.
How? The Knicks should still be asset acquisition mode. They should use their cap space in any way they can to continue to add future draft picks or young players under reasonable contracts that can help their situation in the future. Adding veterans to assist in player development, but not dominate minutes or usage, should also be a priority.
Adding more draft picks in 2021 is also an option, but given the team already has four picks likely to land in the top 40, prioritizing the 2022 draft might be the more prudent move. The Knicks have more than enough assets to move in next year's draft, and they would have trouble rostering the seven players they may draft in 2020 and 2021. The Knicks could also move down in the 2020 or 2021 drafts to acquire more picks in 2022 and beyond. It would prepare them to make moves down the road, if the right move does not become available in 2021.
It is also essential the Knicks have a premium pick in the 2021 NBA Draft. This doesn't mean they should tank or try to lose games, but it does mean they should try to avoid non-foundational pieces that would artificially inflate their record to the point they will not be in position to draft a special player in the 2021 draft class.
Being in position to draft a Cade Cunningham, or one of the other half-dozen or so players that would be good enough to go first overall this season, is a necessary centerpiece to making the 2021 strategy work. The player would be a draw to free agents to join the team, and it would make it more palatable to move the other picks in 2021 and future drafts for another established player.
If they are not selecting in the top three, or even five, the Knicks would still be without a centerpiece to draw in a veteran in free agency. It is possible a player already on the roster develops into such a player, but that is not very likely.
It is important to note that the Knicks have to make their big move for the right player, whether it is in free agency or via trade. If they take their shot and use their cap space or assets to trade for the wrong player, it could be a mistake that sets the franchise back half a decade. They need to cash in their assets for a true difference-making star, and not settle for players that will trap the franchise in mediocrity. Doing nothing is a far better option than forcing something that is not the right move.
If it doesn't come together that way, the Knicks may be forced to push their plans back another year, rely on a reportedly stacked 2022 draft class to find their star, and try to execute their 2021 plan again. It would require another round of acquiring assets and salary management from the youngsters already on the roster. It would be far more difficult to pull off than executing that plan in 2021.
As the draft and free agency approaches in November, preparing for 2021 is the best way forward for the Knicks. They have young players on the roster, excess draft assets, and salary cap space. It is a very good situation to be in, but it will get worse after next summer unless Leon Rose uses this season to prepare for a potential failure in 2021.
This season is bound to be messy, given the likelihoods of a condensed scheduled against a stacked Atlantic Division, no fans in the stands, and other unforeseen challenges. It is the perfect season to use for player development – determine what young players need to stay, and prepare for the summer of 2021. It will be the most important Knicks summer since 2010, and they need to do all they can to assure their success once it arrives.
You can listen to my most recent episode of the Bank Shot with SNY's Ian Begley, or subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Sticher.
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