There are still more than six weeks until the NBA draft, with a lot of time to delve deeper into the class, finalize big boards and rankings, and execute a few fun mock drafts. No decisions need to be made by any teams this early in the process, especially before the "re-imagined" NBA combine and the other parts of the draft preparation process the NBA is developing with the 2020 draft class.
If I was making the Knicks' pick, however, there are some things I would already know this early in the process. The Knicks are not in any position to draft based on need. They are still at the beginning of their rebuilding process, and for the most part, no players on their roster should block them from drafting anyone if they think that player would bring the most value to the team.
There should be no concerns, for example, about drafting a player that "can't play" with RJ Barrett. There is nothing about Barrett that makes him incompatible with any player in the draft. A team can't have enough 6-foot-7 wings that can do the things Barrett does. There is also no indication Barrett is good enough to be someone a team builds around. The Knicks should be more inclined to stockpile players like Barrett, not avoid them.
Every team needs multiple two-way wings, ball-handlers, and perimeter shooters. Players that can do those things have quickly become the most valuable commodities in the league. The more players the Knicks take that have those skills, the better chance they have hitting on one that can become a truly difference-making player.
The Knicks should have one general exception to that rule, though: they should not draft a big man. Mitchell Robinson's presence is part of the calculation, but not the only driver. Unlike wings and other perimeter players, NBA teams can only truly play one big man at a time. Playing two bigs clogs the floor, and prevents the key spacing necessary to run an efficient offense.
Defensively, playing two big men can also be problematic. If the two big men aren't switchable outside, it can limit the defensive strategy teams can employ against the pick and roll. It also makes off-ball rotations more difficult, as traditional big men and rim protectors aren't as mobile and struggle closing out on shooters beyond the three-point line.
NBA rules, modern defensive schemes, and the lack of developed post skills amongst big men have made the mismatches they could have against smaller players much less impactful than the deficiencies created on the defensive end. The days of dumping it down into the low block are over.
The most important and valuable skills for a big man in the modern NBA are on defense. Rim protection, the ability to switch, rebounding, and good team defense are on the top of the list. Offensively, finishing as a roll man and stretching the floor as a shooter is far more important than the low post game in the 21st century NBA.
Mitchell Robinson is a work in progress and there is still no way to know exactly what he will develop into. The potential to be an elite rim protector is there, even though he still must hone some of his instincts. He still fouls too much, and there is work to do, but the tools are there. He even has the athleticism to become a switchable defender if he can clean up some of his fundamentals.
Drafting someone like James Wiseman or Onyeka Okongwu, as talented as those players are, would not bring adequate value to the Knicks and help them become a better team. Both players have skill sets that overlap with Robinson, who is already one of the Knicks' top two talents. They could split time with Robinson and play 25 or so minutes per game, but the utility returned from such an arrangement would be limited.
If Robinson does develop and becomes a borderline All-Defense performer, Wiseman and Okongwu would have trouble getting off the bench unless the Knicks play less than ideal dual-big men lineups. If the Knicks do trade Robinson, this calculation changes, but that doesn't seem to be likely.
I'll write more about Obi Toppin as the draft process proceeds, but he is another big man the Knicks should stay away from. Offensively, Toppin might be the most polished player in the draft and could fit next to Robinson due to his ability to stretch the floor, but his defense could be an insurmountable problem.
The Knicks would be revisiting the Amar'e Stoudemire conundrum, where they have a player that is a legitimate offensive weapon, but is so poor defensively it is hard to find lineups where he can help the team win. Robinson could help Toppin overcome his lack of rim protection, but it is not difficult to see a world where opponents attack Toppin over and over again in pick-and-roll, forcing him to switch or rotate towards smaller and quicker players he is unable to guard. He is a mismatch waiting to happen on the defensive end of the floor every possession. His team defense is also poor, so the Knicks should stay away.
The Knicks need players that can handle, pass, and shoot the basketball. They need wings and guards. Later in the draft, when the only concern should be to draft a NBA-ready player, all bets are off, but they do not need another big man when they select at No. 8 overall. It is the one tenet they should follow when draft night arrives in November.
Follow John Schmeelk on Twitter: @Schmeelk
