PECOTA projections put Yankees, Mets back in playoffs
Happy PECOTA Day!
Baseball Prospectus has released its annual projections for how each MLB team will fare in terms of wins and losses, and if they turn out to be accurate, the Yankees and Mets will both be back in the postseason.
Starting in the American League, the Yankees are projected to squeak by the Orioles to claim their second straight AL East title and third in the last four years, as PECOTA has the Bombers at 89.7 wins in 2025, just above the O's and their projected 89.2 wins and tops in the AL. Baltimore took a step back last year after eclipsing 100 wins in 2023, and lost key contributors in Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander, although they hope their young core takes a step forward.
The Yanks were projected to win 94 games in 2024, per PECOTA, and finished with 94 victories.
The Yankees lost Juan Soto to the Mets after he enjoyed a historic season alongside Aaron Judge, but bolstered other areas of the roster with additions like Max Fried, Devin Williams, Cody Bellinger, and Paul Goldschmidt. The rival Red Sox are projected to finish last in the AL East, while the Twins, Rangers, Astros, and Mariners would round out the other playoff teams.
In the National League, the Mets are expected to finish second in the strong NL East after adding Soto, projected at 88.9 wins behind the Braves and their 92.4 projected victories. The Phillies are slotted close behind at 87.5 wins, and would make the playoffs as a Wild Card along with the Mets and Diamondbacks if these projections panned out.
The Dodgers are projected to finish with the best record in baseball with 103.8 wins.
