Baseball Prospectus’ annual PECOTA projections are out, and it’s good news for New York: the 2023 Mets are simulated to win the NL East with an approximate 97-65 record, while the Yankees, at roughly 99-63, are projected to win the AL East by almost double-digits.
Now, before digging in, here’s the grain of salt:
Please remember that PECOTA and our simulations do not "pick" a team to "win" any particular number of games. Rather, they identify an estimated range of games a team might win and tells you the average of that fairly wide range. That is the point of the visualizations. Any one of those outcomes is possible. However, some of them, as you can see, are more likely than others.
That said, BP has the Yankees finishing 2023 with the same record they had in 2022, while the Mets trade four wins for a five-game margin in the NL East and the second-best record in the NL behind the Dodgers, whose 97.4-64.6 projection is two-tenths of a win above the Mets’ 97.2-64.8.
The Bombers, who were projected for the AL’s best record at 99.3-62.7, have an 82.6 percent chance to win the AL East, while the Mets’ chances are listed at just 65.4 percent. Both teams do have their respective leagues’ best chance of making the World Series, however, the Yankees’ 17.8 percent more than five ahead of Houston and the Mets’ 12.9 percent just edging out the Dodgers.
How will they get there? Well, the Mets are projected to score the third-most runs in MLB (786) while allowing 637 (the sixth-fewest), while the Yankees’ projected 731 runs scored ranks only tenth, but their projected 568 allowed is the fewest in baseball by 42 runs (Minnesota is second with 610).
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