The path to advance in the World Baseball Classic is pretty simple for Team USA: win tonight against Colombia and they move on, with the result of Mexico vs. Canada determining whether they are the winner or runner-up of Pool C.
Team USA lost to Mexico on Sunday and beat Canada Monday, so a Canadian win gives the U.S. the pool victory and a date with tonight’s Dominican Republic-Puerto Rico winner in the quarterfinals, while a Mexico victory makes them the runner-up and sends them to play Venezuela in the quarters.
Should Team USA lose, however, it gets a little complicated, as they will be tied with Colombia and the Mexico/Canada loser at 2-2, and would have a very slim chance of moving on based on tiebreakers.
These are the two scenarios:
-If the third tied team is Mexico, the USA is automatically eliminated; they would’ve lost to both Mexico and Colombia, and per WBC tiebreakers, if one team in a three-way tie lost to both of the other teams, they are the first eliminated. That would leave Mexico and Colombia, and Colombia would advance based on their 5-4 win over Mexico last week.
-If the third tied team is Canada, the tiebreaker would go to the second step: runs allowed divided by defensive outs recorded, with the lowest number winning the spot.
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Entering play Wednesday, those standings have the U.S. in the lead with .1867 (14 runs against 75 outs), Colombia second at .1905 (16 runs against 84 outs), and Canada way behind at .29 runs allowed per out (20 runs against 69 outs).
However, because Colombia is the home team for tonight's game, a U.S. loss almost certainly eliminates them, as even a 1-0 loss in regulation gives Colombia a better ratio (the US' best would be .1481 on a two-out, ninth-inning walk-off vs. Colombia being .1441). In short, they're going to need a miracle, or a ridiculous 20-inning, 45-run game.
They will know by the exact tiebreaker they would need come first pitch, as Mexico-Canada is the first game of the night in Pool C, so as far as they’re concerned, Mexico is the team to root for.
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