Chichester: Aaron Judge's playoff narrative has some clear flaws
As Aaron Judge enjoys an otherworldly tear over the last month, posting an OPS of nearly 1.500 since May 1, the collective amazement at his hot streak often gives way to one lingering question.
Can the Yankees superstar finally get it done in the playoffs?
The great debate around Judge, aside from his ability to stay healthy, is whether or not he can replicate his eye-popping regular season production in October, where many believe he has yet to show that he can handle the pressure of the bright autumn lights.
That has been the narrative around Judge as he slugs his way through his eighth big league season, but that narrative has plenty of holes.
When Judge went 2-for-4 with a home run and three runs scored in his playoff debut, an 8-4 win over Ervin Santana and the Twins in the 2017 Wild Card Game, fans salivated at the thought of a homegrown rookie, fresh off a historic 52-homer season, leading the next generation of core Yankees to October success, much like Derek Jeter before him. It hasn’t worked out that way, as the Yanks haven’t gotten past the ALCS, and Judge has had some postseason series that have been flat-out bad. But does that mean he hasn’t proven at all that he can be his regular season self in the playoffs?
One of those flat-out bad series came after his postseason debut. The Yankees managed to overcome a 2-0 series deficit in the 2017 ALDS to stun Cleveland, but Judge didn’t pick up a hit until doubling off of Trevor Bauer in game four, his only hit in 20 at-bats in that series. How much of that was a rookie finding his way against elite pitching, which Cleveland certainly had during what was a 102-win season? Was it a failure to live up to the moment, or an adjustment?
He certainly seemed to start making adjustments in the ALCS that season, hitting three home runs in the seven-game thriller while posting an OPS of 1.065. His home run in game three helped set the tone and get the Yanks on the board in the series. His home run to dead center in game four sparked one of the most memorable Yankee comebacks of the last 15 years. Sure, it ended in a hitless outing in game seven where nobody in the lineup managed a hit against Lance McCullers and his roughly 500 straight breaking balls, but on the whole, it was a productive series for Judge.
One year later, Judge was looking like a playoff star. With the Yankees leaning on a fatigued and shaky Luis Severino in the Wild Card Game against the A’s, Judge set the tone with a two-run blast in the first inning to ignite Yankee Stadium and shut Oakland down before the game even began. In game one of the ALDS against the hated Red Sox, Judge went 3-for-5 with a home run, but J.A. Happ couldn’t be the Boston stopper he had been for much of his career to that point, and the Yanks lost. Desperately needing a bounceback in game two to stay alive in the series, Judge obliterated a home run off of David Price to once again set the tone and get the Yanks a win. No, they didn’t win the series, as a lack of starting pitching showed itself and the Red Sox rolled to a title, but it wasn’t due to Judge not doing his part.
By the 2019 ALCS, Judge was still hitting big home runs in October. Remember his go-ahead shot off of Justin Verlander in game two of the ALCS when the Yanks were seeking a commanding 2-0 series lead in Houston? That was coming off a multi-hit night in game one after logging three hits and four walks in an ALDS sweep of the Twins, continuing his very strong playoff performance in 2018.
The Yanks once again failed to solve the Astros thanks to a flat-as-can-be Aroldis Chapman slider in game six of that 2019 ALCS, but when it was all said and done, Judge was riding a stretch of 21 playoff games from the start of the 2017 ALCS to the end of the 2019 ALCS where he was batting .299 with seven home runs and a robust 1.017 OPS. In the scope of the postseason, 21 games is no small sample size, and Judge was putting up numbers that would have made him the consistent All-Star that he is in the regular season.
Do those numbers sound like a player who sees the moment as too big for them?
Now, there is merit to the argument that Judge isn’t the same in October, but recency bias plays a role, because he has simply not been as good in his last few playoff series. He hit two home runs in his first three games of the weird 2020 playoffs, but finished with a .662 OPS. He was even worse in 2022, once again failing to solve Cleveland in October before flatlining like the rest of the lineup in the ALCS against, you guessed it, the Astros. He posted a horrid .490 OPS in nine games of that postseason, coming off an MVP year in which he blasted a franchise record 62 home runs, and played nearly every day, plus a lot of center field, to make that record a reality.
How much gas did Judge have left in the tank once October rolled around after chasing history? It’s hard to say. He still had a huge home run in the deciding game five against the Guardians, but simply put, his numbers weren’t good enough for the star of the team and future captain.
It’s true that Judge’s last three playoff series have not been good. But the four playoff series before that, he was his usual self. Which sample size do you care to focus on? That’s what makes Judge’s playoff narrative complicated, but also shows why that narrative is somewhat flawed.
Luckily for Judge, he holds the power to change his current postseason label this October, with a much more capable lineup on his side.
