Andrew Benintendi is the ideal leadoff hitter for the Yankees, being a lefty with an OBP above .350 this season, and if not him, DJ LeMahieu and his .358 OBP would be next in line.
Both are hurt, though, and if neither is going to be 100 percent (if back at all) come October, the Yankees simply can’t continue to run Aaron Judge out in the leadoff spot, considering he’s been a key run producer all year. After all, a guy with 60 home runs leading off is bonkers as is, but take away those 60 runs and RBI, and an Aaron Judge with 68 RBI and 65 runs scored would still be fourth and tied for fourth on the team.
So, if Judge needs to be a little lower, and the Yankees don’t have DJLM or Benintendi, someone else needs to hit in the top spot in the lineup…so why not Isiah Kiner-Falefa?
Okay, okay, keep reading, I promise I have reasons.
Let’s look at the middle of the Yankees order first. Judge is Judge, Gleyber Torres is second on the team in hits and fourth in homers and RBI, and Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo flip-flop second and third on those latter two lists. Those guys should probably be hitting second through fifth, the likely order there Judge second, Stanton fifth, and Torres/Rizzo three-four to not stack three high-strikeout righties in a row.
If Benintendi isn’t back, that means Oswaldo Cabrera is probably playing left, and as a switch hitter, you want him seventh or eighth in the order to break up righties again; that puts Jose Trevino in the other spot, and means Josh Donaldson or a compromised LeMahieu would hit sixth.
So, the first and last spot in the order fall between IKF and Harrison Bader – and don’t look now, but Kiner-Falefa is third on the team in at-bats, and he’s made the most of it, as his 122 hits are third on the team, and his 65 runs are fifth.
Granted, he doesn’t walk a lot (his 32 are ninth on the team, and second-worst ahead of only Trevino of the 10 Yankees players with at least 300 plate appearances), but he does sport a .316 OBP that’s fourth among healthy qualified Yankees, and with a team-leading 20 steals, he’s a threat to run on any bad pitches Judge sees or go first-to-third on a hit-and-run.
IKF also doesn’t strike out much, at least compared to the team, as he’s again ninth on the team and second-best to Trevino among Yankees with 300 plate appearances, and hitting him atop the order would, for at least one plate appearance, mitigate an offensive foible: he can’t ground into a double play to start the game, meaning one less chance to add to the 13 that is second on the team…behind Judge, of all people.
The Yankees enter Toronto with a magic number of two to clinch the AL East, meaning that one win in their three-game set against the Jays will clinch it. They also have a magic number of two to clinch a bye for the AL East, so the Yankees could be in “figure out the postseason” mode as soon as Wednesday.
That would be eight games where the Yankees could try some things – they’re still in striking distance of Houston for the top seed, but that’s only slightly more probable than not winning the AL East – and giving IKF 20 to 25 at-bats in the leadoff spot to get comfortable.
At this point, especially once Judge hits No. 61 and maybe No. 62, the leadoff spot is going to be more about setting the tone for the sluggers than getting your biggest weapon a potential extra at-bat; after all, entering Monday, thanks to the entire lineup taking three plate appearances Sunday, the Yankees had just 17 more plate appearances from the leadoff spot than the No. 2 spot, meaning the leadoff hitter gets an extra plate appearance, on average, roughly once every nine games (0.11258 plate appearances per game, to be exact).
With 11 left entering Monday, is one or two extra Judge plate appearances worth more than perhaps finding a potential table-setter?
Follow Lou DiPietro on Twitter: @LouDiPietroWFAN
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