The Yankees and the Rays know each other well, and this could be the best of all four Division Series matchups. Here are five key factors for me as the series gets underway.
1) Join Hands, Start a Cole Train
It was classic Gerrit Cole in Game 1 against Cleveland – 7 innings, 2 runs, 13 strikeouts – and the Yankees will be looking for more of that to start the ALDS. Brought here for one reason, he still needs at least three more performances like this to get the Yankees through October.
The problem is that the Rays are the biggest reason Cole struggled at all this season (0-1 with a 4. 96 ERA in three starts against Tampa). However, the last time he faced them was August 31, and all the Yankees ace has done since (including the playoffs) is go 4-1 with a 1.32 ERA.
Every team places a premium on the day their ace pitches. The Yankees have to win every game Cole starts this month.
2) Whose Stable is More Stable?
Kevin Cash's famous "stable full of guys who throw 98" will be matched against Aaron Boone's stable of wild stallions that includes, surely to Tampa Bay's dismay, Aroldis Chapman. The Yankees closer might be called on for more inning-plus assignments like he was in Game 2 against Cleveland. And remember, his actions were what set off Cash and the Rays the last time they met.
The depth of rotations is important in this five-game series, but the bullpens become even more important with no off-days. Both managers will have less time to recover if any of their relievers falter. Knowing who to bring in and when has never been more important.
3) Judgement Day and Rise of The Machine
We all know that the Yankees went 2-8 vs. Tampa Bay this year, but take a closer look and you'll see that the Yankees didn't put their best lineup on the field most of those meetings.
Aaron Judge missed the final two series with a calf injury, and DJ LeMahieu was on the IL with a thumb injury when the Rays swept a three game series in mid-August.
The two games out of 10 the Yankees won? Judge homered in one victory and LeMahieu slammed two homers in the other. These two guys make a difference at the top of the order, and if you don't believe me, ask Shane Bieber.
4) Beware of G-Man and Ji-Man
The X-factor hitters for each team?
For the Yankees there's Giancarlo Stanton, who put on a strong showing against Cleveland with home runs in each game. Stanton has played in 12 postseason games now and the Yankees are 4-0 in the games in which he homers. Stanton played in only one series against the Rays this year, going 2-for-7 with a home run, but in his last fully healthy year (2018), Stanton played 19 games against Tampa Bay and batted .319/.393/.667 with 10 doubles, 5 home runs, and 14 RBI.
Then there's Ji-Man Choi, who would be Gerrit Cole's arch-nemesis in a superhero movie. In three games this year against Cole, Choi is 5-for-7 with two doubles and two homers. Cole is pitching much better now than he was then, but this is still the guy to watch out for in Game 1.
5) There Will Be Blood
Everyone will try their best to downplay the possibility of tensions rising and tempers boiling over. Does anyone really believe there won't be an incident or three between these two rivals?
The stakes are higher and there is little margin to overcome something stupid, but that doesn't mean there won't be a dustup. Remember Yankees-Red Sox in the 2003 ALCS? All it took was a couple of pitches from Pedro Martinez and Roger Clemens to light the fuse.
The Rays will pitch inside, the Yankees will pitch inside, and both teams will have to walk that line between intensity and composure. My guess is the intensity will be on display, but hopefully no one gets hurt.
Follow Sweeny Murti on Twitter: @YankeesWFAN
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