March! Not a bad month for sports, is it? The NCAA Tournaments, spring training baseball, playoff races in basketball and hockey, weekly golf tournaments and auto races, and now the XFL.
And, as ever, even though it's the offseason, there is a ton of drama building in the National Football League.
The idea of Tom Brady playing for a new team is pretty intoxicating. With two weeks to go before free agency, most of the reporting on Brady's future describe him as ready to consider offers from other teams, if not pursue them.
We've all heard and read the speculation about the possible suitors: The Tennessee Titans, coached by his former teammate Mike Vrabel, on the heels of an AFC Championship game season; the Raiders, now in Las Vegas, looking for an upgrade at quarterback to help get a bottom-feeder franchise into the playoff mix; the Los Angeles Chargers, with a talent-laden roster that for years led by Philip Rivers always fell short.
As Willy Wonka said, the suspense is killing me.
Sports betting is legal in the area now, including win-total over-unders for NFL teams in 2020. A novice bettor may ask, "isn't it early?" Of course they'd be right as we don't know the Brady answer and numerous other key questions about rosters in the upcoming season.
But a key point to remember is that player movement of that sort will change the prices. You know each team's opponents for next year, and most of their roster, and who their coach is, etc. If you think Brady would catapult up the standings one of those teams reported to be vying for his services, and you have an educated guess on where he'll sign -- and not sign -- you may be able to take advantage of these early prices.
For example, let's say you think Brady will sign with the Raiders. Their current win total at the Seneca locations is seven. Do you think a Tom Brady-led Raiders team would go 6-10 or worse? I guess I don't either. On the other hand, perhaps there's enough weight behind Brady-to-Vegas rumors to think the total of seven is being pushed up, in which case, you would play the under. If that scenario is being taken seriously by bettors, I'd expect the prices to move one way or another after Brady picks his team.
Usually the number -- seven in the Raiders' case -- doesn't move after it's posted. It's the prices that move. Now, betting Vegas over seven wins costs -110, or $110 to win $100. If Brady signs there, maybe that goes up to -150 -- or, maybe if enough money is coming in on one side the house will post a new line (7.5, 8, etc.).
I've spotted one team where that's happened already: the Carolina Panthers. On last Friday's show, we talked about some of the over-unders and "forced" each other to bet against our favorite line. Bulldog's choice was Carolina under 6.5 wins. At OddsShark, that price was -150, although we didn't incorporate that into our game. Now, however, at the Seneca locations, the win total on Carolina is down to 5.5. The speculation about the Panthers is that a rebuilding project is afoot (read: tank). If that proves correct, under 5.5 for -106 may be a bargain.
The team I chose in that part of Friday's show was the Indianapolis Colts over 7.5 wins (-140 at OddsShark). The Colts have a good overall roster, and I really like their leadership in general manager Chris Ballard and head coach Frank Reich. They're in the quarterback market for sure, and they be should be an appealing option for the best of the guys out there. I think Rivers there can work out great.
All you hear about Rivers is how "shot" he looked last season. Well he threw for 4,615 yards. How shot could he be? The Bills' all-time highest passing yards total in a season is 4,359 yards by Drew Bledsoe in 2002. Jim Kelly is next at 3,844 yards. Rivers' total of 4,615 yards in 2019 ranks as the 50th highest mark in NFL history.
I'm not daunted by his age, or 2019 performance -- and if he signs with Indianapolis, that's a green-light special for me. (There is recent speculation that Rivers may retire. I don't consider him going to Indianapolis a done deal. But no matter who they sign, I expect the Colts to do well.)
At Seneca, Indianapolis's win total is 8. I like the over plenty at -110.
Let's circle back to the New England Patriots and the AFC East. Locally, New England sits at a 10.5 win total, with the under coming in at -125. The Bills are next at 8.5, with prices split down the middle. Then it's the New York Jets at 6 (over -118), and the Miami Dolphins at 5.5 (over -110).
I think the gap between the Bills' and Jets' betting lines is stark. I know that the Jets' low total and overall respectability are backed up by statistics; their DVOA at Football Outsiders in 2019 was 26th (although their weighted was 19th). Last season, the Bills did great to get to 10 wins, partly because they (again) stayed very healthy. Meanwhile, the Jets lost Sam Darnold immediately, then they lost his backup the next week. Despite that, they rallied to seven wins.
I don't think the teams are much different in quality so I'm big on the Jets over six.
As far as New England goes, could the wheels fall all the way off? They have serious holes on offense, beyond Brady. Can you picture a Bill Belichick team with a new quarterback going, say, 8-8? If you can, jump on it. And if you think Brady returns to Foxboro, the Patriots over 10.5 at +103 looks tasty.
The NFL season is six months away, but there are plenty of opportunities to make predictions at this early stage.
