It's been a while, but we've been here before.
This will be a tough sell. Not necessarily because the math is tough, but convincing Buffalo Sabres fans that this team is capable of the type of run it would take to make the postseason is an unfair ask. Almost nothing about this team, at the moment, makes me think they can do it.
However, the math to making the playoffs is math we've seen, although it's been a while.
The Sabres have the longest active playoff drought in the National Hockey League, going on it's ninth season. Smashing the previous team record of three seasons, missing the playoffs from 2001 to 2004.
The Sabres currently have 51 points in 49 games. That's the exact amount of points the 2010-11 Sabres had after 49 games. Both this year's team and that 2010-11 team also had a minus-7 goal differential after 49 games.
The 2010-11 Sabres team went 20-8-5 over their last 33 games, which is a total of 45 points. That was good for the fourth-best total in the NHL in that span.
This time around, it will be more challenging.
On Jan. 28, 2011, the Sabres sat six points out of a playoff spot, but did finish the season with a five-point cushion between themselves and the ninth place Carolina Hurricanes. This year's Sabres team is 10 points out of a playoff spot as of Jan. 27, 2020.
The same point total the 2010-11 Sabres finished with, 96, may be enough for this year's team. That point total is, coincidentally, the exact point pace of both the Philadelphia Flyers and Hurricanes as the two Wild Card teams.
That means the 20-8-5 record is the magic mark for the Sabres.
The biggest difference between the Sabres from eight years ago and this year's team is goaltending. Ryan Miller was very capable of putting together three months of Vezina level goaltending. Though Miller wasn't quite on that level in the final three months of that season, he was still very good, posting a .921 save percentage, and a record of 14-8-4 in that stretch.
Linus Ullmark looks to be capable of that type of production.
What doesn't look to be possible is the tremendous play from the backup that Jhonas Enroth gave the Sabres once upon a time. The Sabres with Enroth went 7-0-1 in their final 33 games. Carter Hutton has lost his last 11 games and looks more like Patrick Lalime than Jhonas Enroth.
The Sabres weren't just stopping pucks in the 2010-11 season. They did have the fifth most goals in the NHL in the final 33 games. There wasn't a Jack Eichel level star on that team, but the depth scoring stepped up.
Is the current Sabres team going to get scoring from 10 players like that? I'd be surprised.
In all likelihood, the Sabres are not going to make the playoffs this season and will extend the NHL's longest playoff drought to nine seasons. With the lack of scoring depth, especially down the middle, it's hard to see the scoring needed in the final 33 games to win at least 20 games.
This current five-game homestand is really the last stand for the Sabres. Three of the five games are against teams below the Sabres in the standings. The Montreal Canadiens have been a disaster the last month, the Ottawa Senators are one of the least talented teams in the league, and the Detroit Red Wings are possibly the worst team in a generation.
To make anyone believe that a torrid stretch of play is on the way, the Sabres will have to get at least eight or nine points in their next five games. Then maybe, people will believe that this team can do what the last Sabres team to make the playoffs did.
