Orchard Park, N.Y. (WGR Sports Radio 550) - The Buffalo Bills travel to Kansas City to face the Chiefs on Sunday in the 2024 AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium. The winner of this contest will advance to Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans on Feb. 9.
In order for that to be the Bills, here are my three keys to the game, plus notes and stats:
1.) Defensive line must win
In the three previous playoff games between these two teams, the Bills defensive line did not perform well enough. They especially didn’t get enough pressure on Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
Kansas City’s offensive line has been an issue at times this season. They’re a very average 16th in the NFL, allowing a sack on 6.83% of pass attempts, and are 29th in rushing yards per-play with just 3.98 yards per-run.
There will be opportunities for the Bills defense to put pressure on Mahomes, to get to him, and to shut down the run.
They have to control the game.
2.) Keep winning the turnover battle
This game may come down to which team gives the other the ball, even just one time. Both teams are excellent at protecting it.
The Bills led the NFL with just eight giveaways in the regular season, but the Chiefs were fourth overall with just 14 of them.
Buffalo took the ball away from their opponent 32 times in the regular season, the third-most in the league. But Kansas City has a plus-11 turnover differential since the two teams played back in Week 11. They haven’t given it away at all since then.
The Bills winning the turnover battle would really go a long way towards another victory.
3.) Be who you’ve been on offense
The Bills have Josh Allen. No doubt there will be times he’s going to have to be special in this one.
But the formula to win for them most of this season has been to use a solid running game and a balanced passing attack.
The Chiefs were the seventh-best team in the regular season allowing just 4.14 yards per-carry on the ground. However, over their last six games, including last week’s playoff win over the Houston Texans, their yards per-carry allowed has been: 6.6, 4.9, 6.5, 3.7, and 5.1.
The Bills have been excellent running the ball and controlling the game on the ground. If they can do that on Sunday, it will keep the Kansas City defense on their heels, and then allow Allen time to throw, as well.
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