Orchard Park, N.Y. (WGR 550) - Here are some final thoughts on the Buffalo Bills just hours before the start of the 2022 NFL Draft:
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Should you believe the running back/Breece Hall hype?
Yes, but only to a point.
I do think the hype is getting a bit out of control, but I wouldn’t dismiss the Bills selecting the Iowa State back with the 25th overall pick. I absolutely think it’s possible.
Let’s remember, general manager Brandon Beane did target running back J.D. McKissic early in free agency, and even agreed to a deal before he decided to re-join the Washington Commanders. They then signed Duke Johnson.
This is a clue that they really want a dynamic, all-around back, and additional weapon for the offense. Hall is exactly that.
I still think it flies in the face of Beane’s usual philosophy on running backs, and not using premium assets to acquire them, nor premium dollars to pay them. But philosophies have exceptions, especially when a team may be that one player away from winning a Super Bowl.
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Trade up? Trade down?
Beane stated last week he does not have 32 players with first round grades. He told WGR earlier this week the most he’s ever seen on a board is in the “low 20s.” So let’s assume he only has 20 first round graded players. It’s possible one of them gets to them at No. 25, but which ones and how many are actually left could leave a pretty bare cupboard of options to match the value.
If one of those players is really high on his board and continues to slide, I could see Beane moving up to make sure he got his guy and the proper value. But it might be tough to swallow paying that price.
The meat of this draft is after the first round, the Day 2 and Day 3 picks, and that’s where Beane and his staff have excelled in their tenure in Buffalo. If they can move down and even out of Round 1 and pick up extra second, third, even fourth or fifth-round picks, they’ll get more bang for their buck in this particular draft, and may even be able to add a pick or two for next year.
A lot of people argue there’s no way that many players are making this roster, which I agree with. However, the Bills could use those picks to move back up later for specific players they like, and don’t discount how much they believe in their own development through the practice squad. Even if those late-round picks don’t make the active roster out of training camp, they’ll most likely be brought back into the building, anyway, provided they pass through waivers.
Beane even made the point himself last year that it’s harder to convince undrafted free agents to come to Buffalo with such a good roster in front of them. So having more draft picks later means they get those players without having to give them a choice.
As far as cost of moving other way, if the Bills were to move up 10 spots or more, it would almost definitely cost them next year’s first-round pick (as well as the swap if this year’s first round choice), and then some. If they were to move up 4-9 spots, it would probably cost them this year’s second-round selection, plus more. Less than four spots could be a third-rounder, but still maybe a second.
The last time pick No. 25 was traded down on draft night was just two years ago. The San Francisco 49ers gave up picks No. 31 (first round), No. 117 (fourth round), and No. 176 (fifth round) to move up just six spots, which is a good gauge for what the Bills would collect by moving down or maybe even out of Round 1.
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Dark horse picks at No. 25
We’ve heard a lot of the same names in most of the mock drafts for the Bills' pick in the first round, No. 25 overall. How about some who could be called that haven’t been talked as much about?
I would start with University of Washington cornerback Kyler Gordon, but I actually had him going to the Bills in my final mock draft Thursday morning.
I’ve seen a few place Western Michigan wide receiver Skyy Moore to the Bills. Given his speed that wouldn’t be a shock. Then there’s North Dakota State wide receiver Christian Watson. At 6-foot-4 and with a 4.36 40-yard dash, he’d fit the bill of “freak athlete” the Bills love.
One more for that spot?
Georgia wideout George Pickens is the complete package. He’s on the taller side at 6-foot-3 and has good, but not great speed at 4.47. But there are off-field questions that keep coming up, especially over the last few days.
There is definitely a chance the Bills go with an offensive lineman with that first selection, particularly on the interior. Rodger Saffold is about to turn 34-years-old and on only a one-year deal. Ryan Bates was re-signed to a nice $4 million per-year contract, but he’s also very valuable as a backup to all five positions, and still needs to earn that starting role.
If Zion Johnson, Kenyon Green, or Tyler Linderbaum are there, none of them should be dismissed at all. Even though Linderbaum is considered the top center in the class, he could start out playing guard then eventually slide to center for Mitch Morse at some point. Johnson and Green would both be in the mix right away to compete for a starting spot, or at the very least a main backup role for a team that will still be adding depth along the line.
On the defensive side of the ball, especially not knowing what’s going to happen with Jordan Poyer‘s contract situation, Daxton Hill is a name to keep in mind. The Michigan defensive back has played slot cornerback, outside corner, and safety. He would add immediate speed to a secondary that has chased Tyreek Hill around the field a bit too much the last couple of years, and now has to see him twice a season with the Miami Dolphins.
Regardless of Poyer‘s situation, Hill could be in the mix, anyway. We all know how much this regime values position flexibility, and he offers that probably more than anyone in this entire class.
Beane may also be considering what happens beyond 2022 at linebacker.
Tremaine Edmunds is going into the final year of his contract, and it’s very up-in-the-air whether or not the team will sign him to another deal.
Utah‘s Devin Lloyd and a pair of Georgia backers, Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker, are all possibilities if he’s thinking along those lines. None of them would most likely play very much this year considering the Bills rarely play more than two linebackers and Edmunds and Matt Milano would be the starters.
Beane has two jobs as general manager. When the roster is this good, the first is to try to win right now, but he’s also trying to maximize his window for championships in the future. A solid starting linebacker on a rookie contract would certainly help give some financial flexibility around the roster.
Tom Pennington - Getty Images
• Bills After Dark
The Bills hold the 25th selection in Round 1. The last three years that pick has been made at:
- 2019: 11:04 p.m. ET
- 2020: 11:16 p.m. ET
- 2021: 11:20 p.m. ET
Plan accordingly, "Bills Mafia".
Ford
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