Buffalo, N.Y. (WGR 550) - My first and only mock of the 2022 NFL Draft is officially here! I spent way too much time on this, and had far too many "hard refreshes," as I struggled to piece together what I believed would happen later Thursday evening.
But as they say, the show must go on. Let’s give this thing a whirl:
In a very difficult top-five to pin down, I did my best to predict how each team would ultimately go. I decided to stick with the Vegas consensus of Travon Walker and Aidan Hutchison going 1-2.
Hutchison had been the betting favorite since the end of the college season just to see Walker’s odds to go on to overtake him with single-digit days left until they get their names called. Could it be the University of Oregon’s Kayvon Thibodeaux for the Detroit Lions at No. 2 overall? Possible, but I can’t imagine the Lions passing over the guy from the University of Michigan when he falls into their laps.
Tough.
Picks 3 and 4 are fairly easy selections for me after laboring a bit over the first two selections.
Evan Silva from Establish the Run believes there is no hotter name in NFL circles than LSU’s Derek Stingley Jr., and believes he doesn’t get past the Houston Texans at No. 3 overall.
Then it’s New York Jets general manager Joe Douglas getting his No. 1 lockdown corner in Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner with Josh Allen, Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs and company in the AFC East.
I rounded out the top-five with former Buffalo Bills front office guru, now New York Giants general manager Joe Schoen getting his franchise left tackle in Ikem Ekwonu out of North Carolina State.
A top-five that certainly gets the attention of Bills general manager Brandon Beane.
The next five picks all felt like relative no-brainers, with the Carolina Panthers addressing their offensive line with Evan Neal, who many teams will have as their top tackle in lieu of selecting Liberty University quarterback Malik Willis. After speaking with Eric Edholm from Yahoo! Sports, there's certainly a sense that Carolina intends to have either Sam Darnold or Baker Mayfield as the primary starting quarterback for 2022, with an eye toward the top of the 2023 NFL Draft.
The Giants get their elite-level pass rusher in Jermaine Johnson at No. 7, who is my No. 1 edge player in this draft to get Schoen the foundational pieces he’s looking for to remake both of his lines.
The Atlanta Falcons get USC’s Drake London to pair with 2021 first-round pick Kyle Pitts.
The Seahawks stop the Thibodeaux slide by scooping him up at No. 9 overall, while the Jets round out the top-10 by selecting University of Alabama star wideout Jameson Williams.
After the top-10, things got really interesting for me with Washington passing over University of Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton for Ohio State wide receiver Garrett Wilson to help new starting quarterback Carson Wentz.
This scenario opened up the Vikings to pair their newest free agent addition in the middle of their defense, Harrison Phillips, with a bulldozer - one technique tackle in University of Georgia’s Jordan Davis.
That’s when Beane officially picks up his phone to move up and get, what many people believe to be, the drafts very best player in Hamilton.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported earlier on Monday that several teams in the top-10 were looking to trade back, which validates the depth in this draft. It’s not a good year to be at the top, and it’s an even worse year to have multiple top-10 picks – sorry Jets and Giants fans.
In order for the Bills to move into the top-10, they’re moving a 2023 first-round pick, and that’s just a non-starter for me. That means I needed one of my guys to fall into a place that Beane could move up for a reasonable cost, while keeping the 57th pick to secure a wide receiver or running back later on.
Hamilton won’t only be the team's top safety on their board, it’s very possible he’s the best overall player on their board, which makes leveraging a Day 2 and 3 pick to secure him making too much sense.
I had the pleasure of watching every single snap of Hamilton’s career at Notre Dame, being a die-hard fan of the Irish. His presence in Marcus Freeman’s defense last year was especially felt in the second half of the season when Hamilton went down with an injury that cost him the rest of his season.
Hamilton is a true "X-factor" with the ability to play in the slot, in the box as a run defender, and in the deep middle of the field.
But in terms of presence, the Bills can replace safety Jordan Poyer with someone even more versatile than the 2021 First-Team All-Pro, and provides Leslie Frazier and Sean McDermott the Swiss Army knife they have coveted for some time.
Hamilton didn’t test as strongly as many of us who watched him religiously thought he would, which pushed him down into an area of this draft that was accessible to Beane.
The last things here – Poyer and, “what about corner, Nate?”
This is where I come up with a solution for both, but because The Draft Network doesn’t allow me to use a player to trade in their software, my plan with Poyer is easy. I would use him and your 57th overall pick to move back into the end of the first or up to the early second to get one of University of Washington cornerback Kyler Gordon or University of Florida cornerback Kaiir Elam, depending on what Poyer could get you in a trade up.
This takes care of your safety of the future - a true cornerstone piece - and your CB2 in one big swing.
After the Baltimore Ravens secured their interior offensive line reinforcements to keep Lamar Jackson upright, the first quarterback finally comes off the board as the Pittsburgh Steelers get impatient and move up five spots to get in front of the New Orleans Saints to get their guy in Willis for pick No. 20 and a fourth- and sixth-rounder, respectively.
The Steelers wanted to make sure they got ahead of the Saints, who ended up replacing Terron Armstead with Mississippi State’s Charles Cross, who fell a little later than the consensus had him going. I’ve then got Spencer Brown’s lab-created twin Trevor Penning going next at the 17th pick over Georgia defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt, with the idea of bookending Penning with 2021 first-rounder Rashawn Slater to allow Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert find his two $20 million receivers with relative ease.
The Philadelphia Eagles take the third corner off the board at No. 18, and University of Arkansas wide receiver Treylon Burks at No. 20 with the Saints adding Ohio State University wideout Chris Olave in the middle of both Philadelphia picks to pair with Michael Thomas coming back from an ankle injury.
This is where the first real surprise of the draft happens at No. 21 with the Patriots taking Georgia linebacker Quay Walker over Utah’s Devin Lloyd, who many have as their top off-ball linebacker. But later rumors have tied Walker and the Patriots enough that I think he’s their guy.
The Green Bay Packers takes the opportunity to replace Za’Darius Smith with Purdue University pass rusher George Karlaftis, instead of replacing Davante Adams with the Las Vegas Raiders’ pick – something they will get around to in a few picks, I’m sure.
The Arizona Cardinals adds to their secondary by selecting Clemson University cornerback Andrew Booth Jr., who has had some pre-draft injury concerns, but the Cardinals get the corner help their defense very much needs.
The Dallas Cowboys gets Daxton Hill, one of the most versatile players in this draft, while the Texans end up with a good scheme fit for Lovie Smith’s defense and cross off a major need on the defensive line taking Penn State University pass rusher Arnold Ebiketie.
The final stretch of the first round was interesting from my perspective when you consider these are mostly stacked rosters with little holes.
The Tennessee Titans could go receiver here, but with the recent addition of Robert Woods, I had them addressing off-ball linebacker with Lloyd.
Meanwhile, the Buccaneers find their replacement for Alex Cappa and Ali Marpet with Texas A&M’s Kenyon Green.
Then, my personal favorite George Pickens from Georgia gets scooped up to be Aaron Rodgers’ new No. 1 wide receiver in Green Bay.
As for the Kansas City Chiefs, they add to a defense that is still trying to slow down Allen and Joe Burrow, as well as a receiver from Penn State people in Kansas City will argue is replacing Tyreek Hill (he isn’t).
Speaking of Burrow, the Cincinnati Bengals get an intriguing athlete in Elam before the Lions sprint to the podium to get their quarterback of the future, Desmond Ridder.
That means, of course, University of Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett doesn’t get taken in Round 1.
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However the first round plays out, my only hope is the Bills walk away with an impact player at an impact position, and not a running back. I do not have the patience to talk through that for the next three months.
Anyways, Happy Draft Day, for those who celebrate!
