Buffalo Bills general manager Brandon Beane wasn’t just being honest at his end-of-season press conference when he said “we feel good with who we have if we don’t add anyone” when asked about fixing some of the struggles in the run game last year.
He put his money where his mouth is. Literally.
With plenty of uncertainty along the offensive line prior to free agency, Beane re-signed guard Jon Feliciano and right tackle Daryl Williams, each to new three-year deals, then also submitted a qualifying tender to guard Ike Boettger to retain his rights.
With those three players returning, along with Dion Dawkins, Mitch Morse, Cody Ford, Ryan Bates, Jordan Devey, who was also re-signed prior to free agency, and Trey Adams, who was on the practice squad all year, that’s nine offensive lineman. All returnees. No one new.
Of course there’s still a draft and undrafted free agents to sign, but it appears the Bills' starting five is already set heading into 2021.
So if the Bills aren’t going to look any different on the offensive line, how else might they improve upon a running game that finished 20th in the league in both yards per-game (107.7) and yards per-play (4.19)? Of course, they could still add another running back.
Many believe a dynamic, play-making back like Clemson’s Travis Etienne, for example, could be the perfect addition. However, with Devin Singletary, Zack Moss, and now Matt Breida all under contract, and given Beane’s quote that he feels good about the people they already have, that’s looking less and less likely as we creep closer to the draft.
That leaves something else Beane said that could fall right in line with how he’s operated already this offseason: scheme.
“Is there anything personnel-wise we could do? Probably so. Is there anything schematic? Do we need to adjust adjust some things? ... You just have to be a very honest,” the Bills general manager said then.
One schematic change the Bills may be looking to make, that could be a key to unlocking a more efficient running game, is running more “12-personnel.” In football lingo, the first number is the number of running backs on the field on a given play. The second is the number of tight ends. Since there are five eligible receivers on every play (not counting the quarterback), that leaves two wide receivers still on the field, as well. So 12-personnel means one running back, two tight ends, two wide receivers.
According to SharpFootballStats, the Bills ran this personnel grouping the second-least of any team in the NFL last season, on only 8% of their plays, behind only the New England Patriots at 2%.
However, as Erik Turner of Cover-1 breaks down, when they went to it, they were not only more successful running the ball (4.9 yards per-attempt), they still maintained their incredible high-efficiency in the passing game, at or near the top of the league in both yards per-attempt and touchdown percentage. Turner points out that it’s not only running 12-personnel that the Bills could benefit from, it’s running play-action passes specifically from that personnel grouping that could really maximize their efficiency.
The reason 12-personnel can be so effective is because it puts the defense in a bind, but only if you have the right kind of tight ends to do it. When offenses put two tight ends on the field, defenses have to decide if they want to counter that with their base 4-3 or 3-4 personnel, using more linebackers to defend the run, or by taking one of them off the field and playing “nickel,” using a fifth defensive back to defend the pass.
If the offense has two tight ends who can present problems as both pass catchers and blockers, they can then see what players the defense leaves on the field and call plays accordingly. They can even split those tight ends out to force linebackers covering them away from the line of scrimmage.
The Patriots appear on track to have a massive increase in their use of 12-personnel. They signed, arguably, the top-two tight ends on the free agent market, spending a total of $87.4 million on Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith. They aren’t spending that kind of money on two highly-regarded players and then have them rotate. They should be on the field at the same time, a lot.
The Bills' recent signing of tight end Jacob Hollister and trade of Lee Smith (as well as reports they were interested in trading for the Philadelphia Eagles tight end Zack Ertz) suggests this may be the way offensive coordinator Brian Daboll wants to attack defenses more often in 2021, especially pairing Hollister with Dawson Knox. The team also still has Reggie Gilliam, Tommy Sweeney, and Nate Becker on the roster.
While no one is going to put the Bills' top-two tight ends in the same category as Henry and Smith in New England, the Bills have something the Patriots don’t, or at least much more of: a plethora of receiver threats.
You’ll be hard-pressed to find a five wideout grouping as deep as Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, Cole Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders, and Isaiah McKenzie. That’s why the Bills ran so much “11-personnel” (one running back, one tight end, three wide receivers) and “10-personnel” (one running back, no tight ends, four wide receivers) last season. With this same group, swapping Sanders for John Brown, Daboll loved to spread the field horizontally, give the receivers space to get open and let quarterback Josh Allen pick the matchup he liked best.
Last season, the Bills ran 11-personnel on 71% of their snaps, sixth-most in the NFL, and 10-personnel on 15% of their plays, second-most in the league by a wide margin.
So a team like the Patriots may not only run more 12-personnel more often next season, it will probably even serve as a way to combat a poor passing game and become a big part of their identity.
That's not the case with the Bills. They would use it to supplement their tremendous passing game by giving them more options and a better ability to run the ball when they want to.
In fact, the Bills running more 12-personnel doesn't have to come at the expense of a huge drop-off in the other groupings, either. The Bills ran 12-personnel a total of 91 plays last year. If they were to double that number to 182, an average of 5-6 more times per-game, even by lowering their 10 and 11-personnel groupings 45 plays each to account for it, they would still have, by far, the second-highest 10-personnel usage and still be in the top-10 in percentage of plays in 11-personnel.
Here’s a clearer illustration of what that would look like (numbers via SharpFootballStats):
2020:
- 10-personnel: 15% (2nd most in NFL)
- 11-personnel: 71% (6th most in NFL)
- 12-personnel: 8% (2nd least in NFL)
2021 (projected):
- 10-personnel: 12% (still 2nd most in NFL)
- 11-personnel: 67% (would be 9th most n NFL)
- 12-personnel: 15% (5% below NFL average)
Maybe a dynamic running back will still be added to the roster. Maybe the Bills decide to run the ball more they they did last year. Or maybe just running more 12-personnel is the key to unlocking a more efficient running game in 2021.
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