Buffalo, N.Y. (WGR 550) – Sure, gambling can be fun. It would be so much better if you never lost, though. Everyone would do it!
I guess the rush would be different if you knew there were no risks of losing. I don’t know, though, those bowlers in Pleasantville seemed to enjoy rolling strikes constantly.
Anyway, it’s just a fantasy.
For those not inclined to bet their hard-earned money for whatever reasons, we offer this alternative: Fake betting.
That’s right, the same process of mining which bets make the most sense without any risk of losing! Less of a rush. That’s the price you don’t pay.
One, maybe two years ago, I was a guest on BetQL’s show “You Better You Bet” with Nick Kostos. Once we got through why I was wearing a hat promoting “The Bachelor”, Nick asked me how I’m betting the upcoming Bills season. I started my response by saying I’m actually more of a “fake bettor.”
We had a nice chat. I’ve not been invited back.
For the purposes of this article, I’m going to pretend to be investing 1,000 units on NFL futures bets for 2022. I’m writing on July 26, 2022, and I’ll shop around a little for lines.
Need I say so, I am not a professional. I don’t have an educated take on, for one thing, what a good outcome for investing 1,000 units over about a six-month term. Is breaking even good? You didn’t lose, you had fun, etc. Myself, I don’t think breaking even is good, but it isn’t bad either. A 500-unit return seems excellent to me; we’ll shoot for that, but probably be satisfied with a smaller win.
I want a combination of futures – both teams and players. Can’t be afraid to play some long shots, can’t be too cool to play favorites.
Let’s get started:
Indianapolis Colts to win AFC South: -115 (BetRivers), 240 units
The Colts had a better point differential last year than Tennessee, but the Titans won 12 games to snag the AFC’s top seed (somehow), while Indianapolis missed the playoffs altogether.
The odds show Indianapolis to be this year’s favorite, and it’s easy to see how. A perceived upgrade at quarterback from Carson Wentz to Matt Ryan. Meanwhile, Tennessee traded wide receiver A.J. Brown.
I’d be on the Colts anyway, but these moves make it easier. Jacksonville and Houston, for me, have too far to go, so I love the Colts at this price.
Real betting sidebar: I actually have $50 on the Colts to win the division at FanDuel for +110, a bet I placed in April. This discovery alone has me glad I’m doing this project.
I prefer the long-term win-total bets over single-game playoff randomness, by the way. For example…
Buffalo Bills to win over 12.5 games: +180 (BetRivers), 100 units
The Bills are everyone’s 2022 offseason darlings. They’re about the most-bet team and the Super Bowl favorite. Not bad for a team that didn’t even make the AFC Conference Championship last year.
Why is this happening?
The combination of there being no dominant team carrying over from last year – the two Super Bowl teams were only 4-seeds, e.g. – and the fact that the Bills have some spectacular metrics from a season ago.
A common tactic in futures-betting is to check on a team’s record in close games the previous year, looking for potential regression in, what is largely, a luck stat. The Bills lost, well, every close game they played last season.
Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs probably will have to enjoy another fully-healthy season for the Bills to win, at least, 13 games, which is what I need to cash here. They should have the team for it, and if so, and the division competition doesn’t look stiff enough to slow me down on this ambitious bet.
Give me a 13-win Bills season – the season they should have had last year – and a huge +180 for the effort.
I felt so good writing this that I talked myself into betting it for real. The way this is going, we may not need the “fake betting” premise we started with.
Also…
Bills and Buccaneers to both be the 1 seeds: +1400 (DraftKings), 30 units
Great price.
Cleveland Browns to make the playoffs: +100 (FanDuel), 50 units
I think the Deshaun Watson suspension will be half the season or less. It’s a guess, like anyone else’s.
What if I’m right? The Browns start against the Carolina Panthers, New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Atlanta Falcons. 2-2 with Jacoby Brissett (or Jimmy Garoppolo) is reasonable, perhaps even conservative.
A 9-8 record can be playoff-good, but 10-7 is the minimum goal. The Browns get the relatively weak NFC South matchups, the toughest of which (Tampa Bay) is at home. Plus, they face the Washington Commanders as their additional game. The Los Angeles Chargers and New England Patriots - two tougher conference matchups - are also home games. They also go to Houston to face the Texans.
I may be trying too hard here, but a 7-seed in a 16-team conference at even money is to me a decent play.
Chargers (-8.5) over Seahawks, Oct. 23: 120 units (DraftKings)
This is a little nutty, I guess, but I wanted to take advantage of the greatness that is betting a game line well into the season.
The Chargers should be very strong, and the Seahawks should be terrible. If I’m right, Week 7 will come around at this line, which will seem paltry.
If I’m so inclined, I can hedge the bet down the road; say the Chargers end up being, like, 12-point favorites. Maybe if I have this I’ll bet on Seattle and try to hit the middle.
Seattle under 5.5 wins: +120 (DraftKings), 100 units
The Seahawks have the worst team-in-the-league potential. I have a real bet on them under 6.5, pressure on that under moved the line down by a game. They’re going to play slow because they always do, trying to shorten games against NFC West and AFC West opponents. Good luck.
That’s 640 units spent, 360 to go.
Derek Carr to lead NFL in passing yards: +1000 (DraftKings), 40 units
Like I referenced in the last Seattle bet, AFC West and NFC West teams go head-to-head this year.
Think about that for a second, and let’s use the Las Vegas Raiders. Two games each with the Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos and Chargers, and one each with the Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals.
One word: Shootouts.
Carr threw for 4,804 yards last year, which was fifth in the league. Now he has Davante Adams to work with. Love this “long shot” bet at 10:1 odds.
Patrick Mahomes under 4,650.5 passing yards: -110 (DraftKings), 50 units
Does this contradict my last pick? The Chiefs leaned into their defense this offseason. Tyreek Hill is gone.
I can see them wanting to be more interested in running the ball, with a presumably healthier Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and newcomer Ronald Jones, who might earn early-down work.
I don’t need (or expect) Mahomes to scale way back, but 4,650 yards is asking a lot, even for him. This would have been the sixth-most in the league last year. And, when betting unders, there are always injuries.
- Breece Hall to lead NFL in rushing yards: +5000 (DraftKings), 20 units
- Breece Hall over 830.5 rushing yards: +100 (DraftKings), 50 units
Hall was the first running back picked in this year’s draft. His Jets team has every reason to try on lean on him to take pressure off second-year quarterback Zach Wilson.
One downside here is if the Jets are losing by a lot – thus, passing situations – and that usually are losing by a lot. However, if you get a spike on defense (from a respected defensive head coach in Robert Saleh, by the way), maybe you script the kind of season where Hall smashes. (I do think Michael Carter is a nice player behind Hall, but he seems slated for the third-down receiving-back role.)
*** - One notable rushing prop: Trey Lance over 500.5 yards is -150 at DraftKings. I’m not touching that at that price. It just tells you what the market thinks of him. Heck, Garoppolo isn’t off that roster yet.
I still have 200 units to spend? Hmmm…
Receiving yards leaders, all at DraftKings:
- CeeDee Lamb (DAL): +1400, 25 units
- Mike Williams (LAC): +3500, 25 units
- Marquise Brown (ARZ): +4000, 25 units
- Chris Olave (NO): +8000, 25 units
It’s starting to feel like I’ve been betting too long! You know, you’re at the casino and you’ve been playing a while but it doesn’t seem quite like time to leave yet, so you fall into a Pai Gow game or something. Not good process!
Still… each of these players, to varying degrees, seem like good plays here.
Lamb as the clear top target on a potentially prolific Dallas offense.
Williams isn’t necessarily the top option, but that’s a 5,000-yard passing offense and he’s a big-play player.
I love Hollywood Brown’s setup in Arizona, with DeAndre Hopkins out of the way for the first six games. Brown is excellent.
As for Olave, it would be amazing, but he’s a super prospect who seems to be very well-suited for Jameis Winston’s game.
Will any 2021 last-place team finish first in its division in 2022?: No, +165 (DraftKings), 100 units
Mostly this is a bet against the Baltimore Ravens, which, as you may know, is difficult for me. But the Cincinnati Bengals and Browns are both good, and the Ravens just have refused to augment their receiver corps.
If I had to pick an AFC North winner, I would take Baltimore, but apart from the Ravens and Broncos, no team on this list seems realistic as a division winner (sorry, Detroit).
Worst-to-first has happened a ton in the last 20 years, so it may be the market’s collective instinct to bet yes here. I’ll try the other side. Will be a fun one to monitor.
----------
Well, there goes 1,000 (mostly) fake units. On to the season!
