Buffalo, N.Y. (WGR Sports Radio 550) - It will be interesting to see which Falcons offense the Buffalo Bills will see for their Monday night matchup in Atlanta.
Will it be the one from the Falcons' first three games of the season, which produced just 42 points and was shutout by the Carolina Panthers? Or will it be the offense that totaled 435 yards and put 34 points up on the board during a win over the Washington Commanders?
There are definitely some weapons on that offense that could make for a long night, as the Bills attempt to improve their record to 5-1.
Running back Bijan Robinson is a dual threat in the Atlanta backfield. He leads the Falcons in rushing, and is averaging an impressive 4.9 yards per-carry. But Robinson is also the team leader in receiving yards, and has a pair of 100-yard receiving games in his first four starts of the season.
Robinson leads the NFL with an average of 146 total yards from scrimmage a game. The former University of Texas star has accounted for 39% of the Falcons' yards from scrimmage.
By the way, Bills running back James Cook is fourth in the NFL with an average of 107 total scrimmage yards a game.
Coming off a game where they were torched by former Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs, the Bills' secondary faces another big challenge in defending Falcons wide receiver Drake London. He leads the team in catches (24) and is one receiving yard behind Robinson (269).
The Bills could catch a break if speedster Darnell Mooney doesn't play. Mooney, who missed all of training camp and the season opener with a shoulder injury, left their last game against Washington with a hamstring injury.
Tight end Kyle Pitts is showing signs of the form he displayed during his rookie season in 2021, when he topped 1,000 yards. Pitts is on pace for 872 yards this season, and has recorded either a first down or a touchdown on 54% of his targets, tops among tight ends in the league.
But which offense shows up depends on which version of Michael Penix Jr. the Bills see.
The second-year quarterback was given the keys to the car during the offseason. Penix, who started the final three games last season in place of Kirk Cousins, has a number of attributes, including his football smarts, quick decision making and an arm that can make all the throws.
However, his accuracy has been an issue in the very early portion of his pro career, as Penix has completed just 60% of his passes. In his seven starts, Atlanta has gone 3-1 when Penix completed more than 60% of his passes. The record is 0-3 when he has been at or under 60%.
Atlanta's offense has moved the ball. The Falcons rank seventh in the league in total yards per-game (373) and sixth in rush yards. They are 10th in third-down efficiency, but are just 26th in average points per-game (19), and have had trouble converting in the red zone, where their touchdown percentage is also ranked 26th.
Defensively, Atlanta has some impressive stats.
That unit actually leads the NFL in total yards, passing yards, passing average and first downs allowed per-game. Atlanta's opponents are averaging just 135 passing yards per-game. The Falcons are sixth in third-down efficiency, and sixth in sacks per-pass play.
However, the defense is 23rd in rushing yards per-carry and 15th in points per-game. Red zone has been a problem spot, as is evidenced by their rank of 25th.
The leading tackler is veteran safety Jessie Bates. Zach Harrison leads the team in sacks (2.5) and their other safety, Xavier Watts, tops the team in passes defensed (4) and interceptions (2). Watts is one of two rookies starting in the secondary along with nickel back Billy Bowman.
Two other rookies, first-round picks James Pearce and Jalon Walker, have figured prominently in their pass rush.
As for special teams, Atlanta's return games haven't contributed much. They are dead last in kick returns and 24th in punt returns.
Their placekicker, Parker Romo, is 5-for-5 on extra points and 7-for-9 on field goal attempts. However, he is just 1-for-3 from 40-or-more yards out.
Atlanta's roster includes a pair of former Bills players. Defensive end Leonard Floyd has 1.5 sacks thus far, while wide receiver Ray-Ray McCloud has six catches for 64 yards and has averaged 22 yards on four kick returns.
Here are some game notes from the Bills' perspective:
- This is the Bills' first game in Atlanta in eight years.
- This will be the Bills' first prime-time meeting against Atlanta.
- Since 2019, the Bills are an impressive 21-7 in prime-time. But the record is just 5-4 for Monday night games. They are 16-3 in prime-time games played on Thursday, Saturday or Sunday.
- This is already the fourth night game of the season. The only other scheduled prime-time appearance is on Nov. 20 against the Texans in Houston.
- Josh Allen's next game with multiple touchdown passes will be his 69th, which will push him past Jim Kelly and into the top spot in franchise history.
- The Bills are 20-5 against NFC teams since the start of the 2020 season. That is second-best among AFC teams to the Kansas City Chiefs (22-4).
- The Bills are 11-4 indoors in the Sean McDermott era.
- If the Bills win, it will be the third time they started 5-1 under McDermott.
Related
