With the NFL league year set to open on Wednesday, March 16, the Buffalo Bills are over the salary cap.
Don't panic, though. It doesn't mean they're screwed and won't be able to do anything to make the team better this offseason.
In fact, both Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano of ESPN have reported the Bills could make a "big splash move" in the next few weeks.
What exactly would constitute a big splash move?
Quarterback would certainly be on that list, like the Denver Broncos trading for Russell Wilson.
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We can rule that out for the Bills.
Perhaps you would consider running back, since reports claim Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey are both available via trade. I don't think the Bills would give up the pick, or picks needed to make either deal, while also taking on the salary cap hit for next season.
To me, this comes down to three positions:
1.) Wide receiver
2.) Tight end
3.) Edge defender
I'd like to see the move come at wide receiver, but I don't think the Bills would be willing to hand out a second big contract at that position.
Stefon Diggs is way under market value, when you look at the two years left on his contract. His average annual salary is $14.4 million. What would be market value for Diggs? Kansas City's Tyreek Hill just got a contract extension that is worth an average of $21 million per-year.
What about tight end? That would be my second-best guess.
The Bills could certainly use a better pass-catching weapon behind Dawson Knox on the depth chart. Amidst some speculation that new offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey might want to work in a little more two tight end action for the Bills' offense, a free agent tight end signing would make perfect sense.
The rumor mill has the Bills interested in Western New York native Rob Gronkowski. Zach Ertz, who was connected with the Bills in a possible trade last offseason, is also on the market. C.J. Uzomah, who just had a career-best 49 catches, 493 yards and five touchdowns for the AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals (sorry, still too soon isn't it?) would be a very nice new weapon for Josh Allen.
But my best guess is an edge defender for a few different reasons.
Think back a year ago when the Bills made a play for J.J. Watt. Then when Von Miller was made available by Denver during the season, the Bills were said to be in the mix.
We know both general manager Brandon Beane and head coach Sean McDermott believe you build your teams up front and try to win the battle on the line of scrimmage. You can also think back to last week at the NFL Combine when Beane talked about two key components when determining how many assets to use for which positions. Beane said you have to have a good quarterback, and the next thing you have to do is get the other team's quarterback down.
In addition to all of that, both Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison are both free agents. I doubt both will be back. There's no guarantee one of the two will be back, but either way, the Bills will be pretty young at defensive end. They can use a veteran presence and a disruptive force off the edge.
That would certainly qualify as a big splash move.
The price tag won't be cheap if the Bills attempt to pull this off in free agency, but there are certainly names out there that would qualify:
- Von Miller (although social media posts from him suggest he is going back to the Denver Broncos)
- Chandler Jones: 10.5 sacks last season
- Jadeveon Clowney: Nine sacks in 14 games last season
- Emmanuel Ogbah: 18 sacks the last two seasons (10th most in the NFL)
Perhaps the Bills look into a trade and call the Minnesota Vikings about Danielle Hunter, who is said to be unhappy about his contract. Hunter has 60.5 sacks in six seasons with the Vikings.
The Bills would have to do something about that contract, though. There are two years left at a hefty $26 million cap number for this season. The number is really high, because of an $18 million roster bonus due this month. The Bills would want to extend the contract to lower the cap number.
Personally, I would make the big splash move on the offensive side of the ball. I'd be looking to help Allen keep his fastball. We know Diggs, Knox and Gabriel Davis are here, but there are questions all over the place when it comes to pass catchers after those three.
I think the Bills should draft a wide receiver in the first round of next month's NFL Draft regardless, but they should also get a proven weapon to bolster their air attack.
I will await the splash.
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