When it comes to putting together the 53-man roster for the start of the 2021 season, Buffalo Bills general manager Brandon Beane and head coach Sean McDermott will face something they haven’t dealt with in their first four years on the job.
This is the deepest, most talented roster the Bills have had in about 30 years, so the last few roster spot decisions, and the breakdown of how many players to keep at each position will provide some challenges.
I always love doing Bills roster math, so let’s get to it.
In all likelihood, there will be a player, or players, who will be released only to be brought back after the 53-man roster is set. Once the regular season begins, teams can place players on Injured Reserve, but they can still return during the season. If you put someone on I.R. right now, they would be out for the year.
The Bills can take some of their injured players, place them on the 53-man roster, and then designate them for Injured Reserve, which would open up spots for other players to come back.
I’m not going to factor that in for this exercise, because it would make my head explode.
Quarterback: 2
The Bills should only keep two quarterbacks on the roster - Josh Allen and Mitchell Trubisky. Since they will need to go longer at other positions, you can’t justify taking up a spot for Jake Fromm or Davis Webb. There’s a risk that either guy could be picked up by another team, but that is the risk you take rather than exposing a player at another position who could contribute this season.
Running back/fullback: 5
Depending on how Reggie Gilliam is classified, the Bills could keep five backs. Gilliam is listed on the depth chart as a fullback. He would join Devin Singletary, Zack Moss and Matt Breida. The question here is what to do with Taiwan Jones. The Bills place a high value on his special teams work, so I would anticipate he gets a spot. It's a discussion point because, once again, would keeping Jones - who wouldn’t be around to contribute much of anything on offense - mean you have to go shorter elsewhere?
Tight end: 2
Remember the Gilliam point? Since he can play tight end, the Bills could actually just keep two guys at this position - Dawson Knox and Jacob Hollister. Tommy Sweeney has been injured, so his status is up in the air.
Offensive line: 8 or 9
This should be pretty easy. I think the only question is whether they keep eight or nine players, which would probably come down to whether or not rookie tackle Tommy Doyle is one of the 53.
Wide receiver: 7
This discussion could take a little time at One Bills Drive. Although the Isaiah McKenzie injury could mean there is no discussion and Marquez Stevenson makes the roster, it looks like the top-six receivers are set with Jake Kumerow having a strong enough preseason to have earned a place. The question would have been whether or not to go with seven wide receivers. But McKenzie being hurt, Stevenson might have clinched a spot with how he has looked as a receiver and returner. This is one of the two positions where the Bills might go a little longer because of the talent on-hand.
Defensive end: 7
This is the other position that screams "keep more than usual," because of the depth of talent. You can make a very solid case to keep seven players: Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison, Efe Obada, A.J. Epenesa, Greg Rousseau, Carlos "Boogie" Basham and Darryl "Bam" Johnson. However, teams don’t usually keep that many defensive ends. The Bills' main goal this season was to improve their pass rush, so why not keep as many of those weapons as possible? You can keep the snap counts lower for veterans like Hughes and Addison, while wearing down opposing offensive lines with waves of rushers. You might also be able to keep one less defensive tackle since some of those ends are versatile enough to play inside.
Defensive tackle: 4
I would think they keep four here with one of Justin Zimmer, Harrison Phillips or Vernon Butler being the odd man out.
Linebacker: 5 or 6
The question here is do they keep five or six? Four spots are set with Tremaine Edmunds, Matt Milano, A.J. Klein and Tyler Matakevich. I’d like to see the Bills keep both Tyrell Dodson and Andre Smith.
Cornerback: 5
You’re probably looking at five corners sticking around: Tre'Davious White, Levi Wallace, Taron Johnson, Dane Jackson and Siran Neal. I’ll give Cam Lewis a maybe, but I doubt he makes the final 53. He would be a prime practice squad candidate, though.
Safety: 4
Very simple. Keep four - Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Damar Hamlin and Jaquan Johnson. Done.
Special teams: 3
Just as easy as safety. Keep the trio of kicker Tyler Bass, punter Matt Haack and long snapper Reid Ferguson. Finished.
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I’ll save you the math. If this is how it shakes out, you would have 14 spots to use between offensive line and linebacker, which means the last player on the depth chart at one of those two positions doesn’t make the cut.
Just everyone please stay healthy Saturday afternoon.