Buffalo, N.Y. (WGR Sports Radio 550) - Since Josh Allen took off as one of the league's best quarterbacks, the Buffalo Bills have had some of the best regular season success that you can have in the NFL.
If you look at point differential, the Bills have, by far, been the best regular season team in the NFL since the start of the 2020 season. Buffalo has a +716 point differential, far better than the second place Kansas City Chiefs at +487.
Since 2000, the only franchises to have better than a +716 over a 75-game stretch are the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks.
Despite this, the Bills do not have the best record in that span. Since 2020, the Bills have a record of 55-20, which trails the Chiefs by four wins.
This difference in record has been just enough to push the Chiefs to two No. 1 seeds, while the Bills have yet to do it. The Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens have won the regular season AFC title in that span as well.
The Bills have done it all in the regular season in the last five years: Made the playoffs, won the division (about to win a fifth-straight title), beat the Chiefs (three times).
There's only one thing left to do: Earn the No. 1 seed in the conference.
Through nine weeks, the Bills are playing from behind. The Chiefs have yet to lose, and have a two-game lead on the Bills.
The two teams will play in Orchard Park next week. There's the opportunity for the Bills to make up one of the two games needed.
Even if the Bills beat the Chiefs next week, they'll need a good amount of help. According to the New York Times playoff machine, if you punch in a Bills win over the Chiefs, their odds for the 1-seed are only 21%.
The Chiefs will have to lose next week to the Bills, and also a couple other games for there to be a realistic shot of the Bills catching them. Their toughest games remaining are against the Houston Texans, Denver Broncos (twice), and Los Angeles Chargers.
The Bills can't afford any stumbles.
Last season, there were a few to bad teams like New England, Denver, and the Zach Wilson-led New York Jets. Lose a game like that this year, and you're playing in the Wild Card round.
The value of the 1-seed is mostly in the free playoff win. Sure, you get home field advantage throughout the playoffs, but the Bills have proven in back-to-back years they can lose at home to the likes of the Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals.
Getting a week off, while everyone else has to put their season on the line, is the reward. Last year, the Bills had to play a mid Pittsburgh Steelers team, and lost linebacker Terrel Bernard in the process.
Not only does the 1-seed allow players that are banged up to get rest, but it also eliminates the risk of an important player getting injured in an actual game. Last year, that helped sink the Bills the following week, as we all saw with A.J. Klein having to play.
This Bills team has been more than good enough for five years to have multiple No. 1 seeds. It's going to take a hell of a finish to the 2024 season to catch the Chiefs, but I think they have it in them.
