Buffalo, N.Y. (WGR 550) - The Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals enter their Week 17 showdown with the most combined wins for a “Monday Night Football” game ever.
Past this week’s matchup featuring two of the top AFC teams in prime-time, the game matters in the standings as well.
The Bills are in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but can be bumped to the passenger seat with a loss in Cincinnati.
With the Chiefs’ 27-24 win over the Denver Broncos on Sunday, the Bills need to beat the Bengals in order to not have to rely upon the Jarrett Stidham-led Las Vegas Raiders next week to beat Kansas City.
For the Bills, there are two paths to clinching the 1-seed in the AFC, which also includes a first-round bye and home field throughout the playoffs.
The first path is get two wins over the Bengals and New England Patriots. It's that simple. Win your two remaining games and the Bills will automatically lock in the 1-seed.
If the Bills drop one of their final two games, they'll need some help.
If they lose to the Bengals, the Bills will need losses by the Chiefs to the Raiders and the Bengals to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 18 to win the top seed in the conference.
With the Chiefs playing on Saturday in Week 18, it's possible the Bills would know they can't get the 1-seed before their game even begins with the Patriots.
If the Bills were to beat the Bengals, and the Chiefs get upset by the Raiders next Saturday, the Bills would be playing for nothing against New England. The 1-seed would already be clinched.
According to the New York Times Playoff Simulator, before Monday’s Bills-Bengals kickoff, the Bills have a 45% chance to get the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The Chiefs have a 41% chance, while the Bengals are at 13%.
Should the Bills defeat the Bengals, their odds will increase to 82% for the 1-seed. A loss and their odds plummet to 10%.
If there's any doubt in your mind about how valuable it is to clinch the top-seed in the AFC, here’s something to put your mind at ease.
If the Bills clinch the No. 1 seed, their path to the Super Bowl would likely include a home game against either the AFC South winner or the Los Angeles Chargers, followed by the winner of Chiefs-Bengals at home in the AFC Championship Game.
If the Bills don't get the 1-seed, their most likely spot is the 3-seed. That path would be a home game in the AFC Wild Card Round most likely against Baltimore, and then two potential road games against the Bengals and Chiefs, assuming all the favorites would win.
Kickoff on Monday night at Paycor Stadium is set for 8:30 p.m. EST.
