The Buffalo Sabres find themselves in a spot Thursday night where they could finish in last place in the National Hockey League standings for the fourth time in 10 seasons.
The Sabres will face the Pittsburgh Penguins at PPG Paints Arena on Thursday, and if Buffalo fails to win the game, the team will finish the 2020-21 campaign in 31st place.
In fact, the Sabres need a number of things to happen over the next two games in order to avoid finishing in last place once again.
First, Buffalo will need to win both games on Thursday and Saturday in Pittsburgh. The Sabres will need at least one of those wins to come in regulation to have a chance at preventing another dead-last finish in the standings.
The Sabres will also need the Anaheim Ducks to lose both of their final games this season in regulation in order to leapfrog them in the overall standings. The Ducks wrap up their 2020-21 campaign on Friday and Saturday with a two-game series against the Wild in Minnesota.
If Anaheim earns a single point in any of the next two games, they will be out of reach for the Sabres to match in the standings with total points, no matter what the Sabres do against Pittsburgh.
Unlike past years, the tie-breaking procedures in the NHL have changed a bit with regulation wins (excluding overtime and shootout wins) now being the first tie-breaker if both teams play the same amount of games in a season.
As of Wednesday night, the Sabres and Ducks each have 11 regulation wins this season. If the Sabres match Anaheim's 41 points and after 56 games played and have one or two more regulation wins, they will finish in 30th place.
However, if the Sabres match Anaheim's 41 points in 56 games and finish the weekend still with 11 regulation wins each, the next tie-breaking procedure would be determined by regulation and overtime wins (ROW), excluding shootout victories. In that matchup, the Ducks have that advantage with 15 regulation-overtime wins to Buffalo's 11.
Seems like a cluster of scenarios that need to go in Buffalo's way in order to avoid a last place finish again, but it's as simple as this: Win both games against Pittsburgh (one in regulation) and hope for Anaheim to lose both games against the Wild in regulation.
Anything other than that, the Sabres will finish 31st and hold the best odds of winning the 2021 NHL Draft Lottery on June 2.