If you have any familiarity with sports card values, a glance at the current market will bring on one big eyeballs emoji. Premium cards sell for what they did a year ago, only with an extra zero at the end – or two. It’s crazy.
From about 2006 to 2013, the card world was an obsession of mine. Money I could have been saving or spending on “important” things would burn proverbial holes in my pockets, and I’d spend it on cards. Yes, it was part-investment for me; I knew the hobby well and thus could make good decisions on which cards were better buys. But there was also a gambling-type rush. Instead of buying a Mickey Mantle, or saving toward one, I’d buy that new box of whatever and hope for an unlikely hit.
Toward the end of that span, my family and I were moving, with two young children, and my collecting habits just couldn’t keep pace. In terms of value, I sold about half my collection. My reaction to what’s happening lately is part pain, seeing prices of cards I sold years ago for fractions of their current values.
But that’s always part of it. With investing, there’s always looking back and imagining making different decisions. That’s life. Best to keep looking forward.
The good news for me is that some of what I held on to back then has appreciated as well, and that’s regenerated my interest somewhat. More than anything, I’m amazed at the incredible recent activity around cards.
I’ve asked a few friends from Western New York, people I saw all the time when I was collecting, to weigh in on the hobby’s incredible interest of late.
Here’s the panel at-hand and what they had to say:
- Bob Willer: Technologist - Collector and operator of cardtarget.com
- Brian Radloff: Lifelong collector
- Gary Nuchereno: Collector, dealer and investor since 1973
- Adam Martin: CEO/Owner - Dave and Adam’s Card World
What explains the recent shift? When did it start and why?
WILLER: "Obviously COVID-19 has played a large role as people have had a lot of time at home to either dust off their old collections and get back into the hobby or have started fresh. That has created an increase in demand, which would normally drive-up values. But I think more importantly, people are seriously considering high-end collectibles as an alternative investment vehicle, and the launch of the fractional market at the super-high end has made 'ownership' of items that would otherwise be out of reach a reality."
RADLOFF: "In early 2020, you started to see some social media influencers begin to pitch graded cards as 'alt investments' (e.g., Gary Vee). Once social media started to push this content, the rest of the actions happened quickly. Everyone sitting home with nothing to do during the pandemic drove a lot of new-found interest in the hobby. Some of it brand new, and some of it was based on nostalgia. More money started to flow into the hobby from people who all of the sudden had nothing else to do and had extra money from not being able to go out, attend games or go on vacations.
"I do believe one other had a big effect as well; the passing of Kobe Bryant. With Kobe’s unfortunate passing came significant increases in the price of his cards. This drove up the price on other 'G.O.A.T.' rookie cards immediately, from [Michael] Jordan to LeBron [James] to Magic [Johnson]. Mix in that ESPN ran 'The Last Dance' a couple months later and you had another tremendous push in the price of key rookie cards."
NUCHERENO: "I believe that there are investment groups and probably hedge funds that have become increasingly involved in the hobby. Since there are no government safeguards in place and, quite frankly, no regulations of any sort, this hobby/business has the potential for both huge profits and huge losses. In recent years, there have been several high profile cases of fraud, with very little-known consequences."
WILLER: "The card companies are also helping drive demand. They have learned how to create scarcity, thereby driving demand, which is why you are seeing such crazy prices for modern rookies and hot prospects. People who aren’t going to Vegas might as well gamble on a 1/1 of your favorite player or can't miss prospect."
What areas of collecting are getting the most “love”?
MARTIN: "Graded rookie cards are being treated like blue-chip stocks. Truly rare vintage cards in high grade. Older unopened merchandise -- 79-80 Topps hockey, up from $20,000 to $70,000 in a year; 86-87 Fleer from $50,000 to $250,000. Investor money is targeting those areas. Graded comics and coins are picking up too. Anything Jordan, LeBron, Kobe, numbered and rare, that’s gone up 10 times."
WILLER: "Everything is getting love with the exception of some commons and '90s junk wax. I am regularly outbid on almost everything I am bidding on these days. While the rookies, stars, and Hall of Famers still dominate, the PSA Set Registry is a hell of a drug, so you combine competition with demand and cards suddenly start selling for 20-30 times very quickly. As a side note, this super-heated market exists in most, if not all collectibles, not just cards."
RADLOFF: "Key G.O.A.T. status rookies and singles have been the hottest area. Jordan and [Wayne] Gretzky, along with current Hall of Famers like Mantle, [Willie] Mays, Magic or Wilt [Chamberlain], and then also stars who are still playing but on their way to Hall of Fame worth careers like [Mike] Trout or LeBron. As well, you have seen prospecting take some big jumps as young stars like [Juan] Soto, [Ronald] Acuña Jr., [Fernando] Tatís Jr., [Luka] Doncic or [Patrick] Mahomes continue to find success. It really has been across the board."
Selling has been off the charts. Would you recommend buying in this climate?
RADLOFF: "It’s difficult to tell anyone to buy right now based on the dramatic increases we have seen over the last couple years. But if you listen to the social media influences or large auction house community, they believe we are still in the third or fourth inning of this push."
MARTIN: "It’s really tricky. It’s not collectors buying these cards. Business is good, so I’m able to expand what I’m buying for myself. I step back and question it, as I’m buying at the highest prices ever. If it’s not collectors buying, ultimately these cards have to be sold to someone. That’s my concern. You don’t want to be the last one holding."
What do you think the card market will look like in six months, or a year?
NUCHERENO: "Let’s look at the basketball card surge. Can the 1957 Topps Bill Russell rookie card continue not only hold its value but continue to go up? The grading card company PSA has graded a total of 713 of these cards, 290 of these cards earned a Grade 6 out of 10 or higher. Now look at the 1980 Topps Larry Bird/Magic Johnson rookie card. Yes, both players on the same card (Julius Erving too). PSA has graded 8,961 of this card with 7,923 graded a 6 or above. This card has gone from $500 to $10,000 in an incredibly short period of time. Be assured that raw examples of this card are being sent to be graded as I write this. Can the industry support that price? In my opinion, the answer is no.
"Are we able to merely base our investment portfolio on supply and demand? Will the day come when Derek Jeter’s cards are worth more than Babe Ruth's, despite the fact that almost 28,000 of his rookie cards have been graded by PSA and many more by companies such as SGC and Beckett? The four different Ruth and two different Lou Gehrig cards from the 1933 Goudey set in total is under 1,300. The legends of Ruth, Gehrig, etc., and many of the stars from that era are so popular despite the fact that almost no one alive today saw them play. So, I think many of the cards experiencing huge increases in value will hold that value, while others won't. You decide for yourself. That’s the fun of the hobby."
RADLOFF: "No one knows. And I would worry about anyone who claims that they do know having ulterior motives. I believe that buying key rookies on Hall of Famers and superstars will always hold some consistent value. The top players in each sport who have generational following and iconic status will certainly hold up better thru peaks and valleys than trying to buy whoever is hot this season."
MARTIN: "I’m coming up on 35 years of doing this for a living. We’ve seen peaks and valleys. We saw people try to get rich by hoarding boxes in the early ‘90s. Didn’t work. What’s different now is that the interest we’re seeing is from Wall Street. Private equity trying to enter the space, the industry. Companies offering fractional ownership. Very well-funded by very smart investors. Athletes (Kevin Durant) have entered the industry. This is a first in my career. Feels like there’s a little bit of fad to it, but it’s smart dollars. A whole different investment class. Cards are now being viewed as a quality investment vehicle for the wealthy."
WILLER: "Is it sustainable is the million-dollar question - literally. I do worry about the ability of non-rare cards to retain their value - Jordan and Gretzky rookies have sky rocketed, but really have no scarcity so those cards will probably come back down again. Maybe not all the way to pre-COVID-19 levels, but I do not believe they will stay where they are."
NUCHERENO: "One more thing: Thanks Mom for not throwing my cards away when I left for boot camp!"
