There’s always ways to wager on a game, and the prop market is one of the biggest emerging vehicles of sports betting. Forget betting the game, you can bet on a player to go above or below their expected output.
At BetQL, we broke down the data ahead of the Divisional Round matchups and you can find all of our projections here. For now, we’ll share a few of our top player props for this weekend.
*All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday morning
Davante Adams (Packers) over 75.5 Receiving Yards (-112) - 5 Stars
Adams leads the NFL in receiving yards per game with over 98. The Rams’ secondary has been one of the best in the NFL all season, headlined by CB Jalen Ramsey, but there is a good chance that he is moving on and off Adams throughout the game. Either way, Adams should be able to get his necessary yardage.
This number is overadusting to the idea of the Rams’ defensive back shadowing Adams all game, and even if that is the case, Adams is an elite receiver and Rodgers No. 1 weapon. I like this at anything under 79.5 yards and BetQL agrees, making this a 5-star play.
BetQL Projection: 9 receptions, 120 yards, 1 TD
Gus Edwards (Ravens) over 8.5 rushes (+100) - 2 Stars
The Ravens will run the ball over and over again on this Buffalo defense. Even if Baltimore falls behind, it is going to lean on its rushing attack to generate points against a Bills D that struggles to stop it. Edwards had eight carries against the Titans last weekend, but with potential snow and high winds, I envision there will be more carries to go around for Baltimore’s running backs this weekend.
Over the team’s six-game winning streak, Edwards is averaging 9.6 carries, including games of 15 and 12 -- albeit blowout wins. Let’s take a ride on Gus the Bus to get nine or more carries.
BetQL Projection: 9 carries, 35 yards, 1 reception, 5 yards
Tyreek Hill (Chiefs) under 6.5 receptions (-152) - 4 Stars
Hill is averaging just under six catches on the season, and while the speedster is a threat to always hit a big play, I don’t see heavy volume from him in this game.
With corner Denzel Ward back in the lineup, the Cleveland secondary should be stronger. I see them making an effort to avoid getting gashed over the top and forcing Mahomes to work underneath. For the season, the Browns were top 10 in avoiding explosive pass plays and they can keep a lid on Hill for most of this one. This feels like a big Travis Kelce game.
BetQL Projection: 4 receptions, 55 yards, 1 carry, 5 yards
Kareem Hunt (Browns) over 15.5 receiving yards (-118) - 3 Stars
Hunt will get his touches as the Browns primary pass catcher out of the backfield. While he only had one catch for 13 yards against the Steelers last week, he averaged more than three targets per game in the regular season.
The explosive back can go over this prop in just one catch with his ability to turn up field and shed tackles. If the game script calls for a ton of points or playing catch up to the vaunted Kansas City offense, this will call for more Hunt and less Nick Chubb.
Hunt is capable of coming out of the backfield and splitting out at receiver, so this is a strong bet at anything under 20 yards.
BetQL Projection: 7 carries, 25 yards, 3 receptions, 30 yards
Alvin Kamara (Saints) over 35.5 receiving yards (-118) - 5 Stars
When Drew Brees played in the regular season, Kamara averaged over 64 receiving yards per game. He is the engine to the Saints’ offense and at this short of a number, we have to play his over. Brees does not have a ton of zip left on his balls, as he is 35th of 36 qualified quarterbacks in the league in intended air yards per pass attempt, per Pro-Football Reference.
Tampa Bay is the best rush defense in the league on a per carry basis, and I figure Sean Payton will get his star back going in the passing game.
BetQL Projection: 12 carries, 60 yards, 1 rush TD, 7 receptions 60 yards
Michael Thomas (Saints) over 6.5 receptions (-112) - 4 Stars
Thomas looked healthy in his first game coming off injured reserve, catching five of his seven targets, including one for a touchdown. The Saints played a conservative game and didn’t push the ball down field considering they were up the entire time. However, against a high-powered Tampa Bay offense, Brees will have to make some throws in order to win, specifically to his No. 1 target.
Thomas will likely get double digit targets and the BetQL Model feels strongly about this prop, giving it 4 Stars.