And with that, the 2020-2021 NFL season is over. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers impressive 31-9 Super Bowl victory made some people very happy. The Bucs and Tom Brady were +1000 at the start of the season to win it all.
But there is no rest for the NFL betting market considering odds are already released for Super Bowl LVI champions.
Here are the odds to win Super Bowl LVI courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook:
Kansas City Chiefs (+500)
The Chiefs open with the shortest odds despite being outclassed on Super Bowl Sunday. Don’t let that game blind you from the fact that this team was 14-1 with Patrick Mahomes during the regular season.
There are some key free agent decisions for Kansas City such as safety Daniel Sorrenson and corner Bashaud Breeland, among others. Despite some potential reshuffling to the roster, the Chiefs will be in the hunt for another ring next year. Mahomes makes them an consistent contender.
“The Chiefs open as betting favorites to win Super Bowl 56. Historically, the runner-up does not return to the big game but none of those teams had Patrick Mahomes," Jason Scott, VP of Trading at BetMGM said. “It is projected that as many as 18 NFL teams will enter the season with a different quarterback so we expect to see plenty of movement in this market before kickoff of next season.”
The defense will remain a question mark but anchors on the line in Frank Clark and Chris Jones are under contract. The draft will be important for KC to revamp their offensive line and bolster the defense, and build depth.
Ultimately, it's tough to bet against Mahomes, the most talented quarterback in the league, but there may be a slight step back from the dominant season the Chiefs put together in 2020. Making three straight Super Bowls is incredibly tough and there can be some fatigue in 2021.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+950)
I don’t see this number doing anything but shrinking as the market begins to become more liquid over the next several months.
Tom Brady looked as good as ever at age 43 and the Bucs are littered with weapons, but the organization is going to need to do its job in the offseason to maintain the core.
Shaq Barrett, Ndamukong Suh, Lavonte David, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski, and Leonard Fournette, key contributors to the Super Bowl run, are all set to be free agents.
Tampa Bay does have over $38.1 million in cap space, per Spotrac, so they should be able to pay to keep their core intact.
If Tampa Bay is able to keep the band together, the team is in position to be dominant in 2021.
It will help that division rival New Orleans is likely going to take a step back with Drew Brees mulling retirement. Elsewhere, Atlanta seems to be heading towards a rebuild. Carolina may be in the market to upgrade at QB, but if they are unable to land someone like DeShaun Watson, they will not be a threat for the NFC South either.
Lastly, many contributors joined this team last offseason, in which there was hardly any training camp. A full year together could make Tampa Bay even stronger.
At this point, just don’t doubt Brady.
Indianapolis Colts (+2900)
When betting futures, people typically like certainty. But what we just learned from the Tampa Bay Super Bowl victory is, sometimes being ahead of a move is worth the payoff. The Bucs were 65-1 ahead of the Brady acquisition. With such a fluid quarterback market right now, there is an advantage to buying futures on specific teams early.
The Colts’ quarterback picture is muddled at the moment. We expect that they will make a move for a quarterback after Philip Rivers retired instead of rolling with former starter Jacoby Brissett.
It feels necessary considering the team brought in Rivers last season to give them a chance to contend, but now is the time for Indy to make a move for a younger, more dynamic quarterback that can take this team over the hump. Indianapolis is arguably the team that is closest to Super Bowl contention in the market for a QB.
If they are able to acquire a proven signal caller or trade up and draft a quarterback, Indianapolis’ odds will drop considerably.
Indy has been tied to Carson Wentz the past several weeks in potential trade talks. Wentz has played at an MVP level for Colts’ coach -- and former Eagles offensive coordinator -- Frank Reich in the past, and it would give Indy instant credibility at quarterback.
The Colts have one of the best offensive lines in the league as well as solid skill positions to put around a new quarterback, such as RB Jonathan Taylor and WR Michael Pittman Jr., both of whom had promising rookie seasons.
On the defensive end, Indy has a solid foundation in Darius Leonard and DeForest Buckner. A move for a quarterback makes the Colts the AFC South favorites. If they solidify the quarterback position, Indianapolis becomes a serious Super Bowl contender, and these odds will shorten to 20-1 or less.