A crazy March Madness is down to just four teams remaining in the NCAA Tournament. Gonzaga and Baylor have been on a collision course all season, but will both favorites cover the betting spread on Saturday?
Our college basketball experts and hosts of the BetQL U podcast, Eli Hershkovich and Reed Wallach, give their best bets for the Final Four with odds courtesy of BetMGM.
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Hershkovich
Houston (+5.5) vs. Baylor
Now that this line has climbed over Baylor -5, there’s some value with Houston. But, I’ll be waiting to see if it hits 6.
The Cougars should hang around in this game if they generate second-chance opportunities and play at their snail-pace tempo. Houston has notched the second-highest offensive rebounding rate in college basketball despite lacking elite-level size. Cougs coach Kelvin Sampson preaches gang rebounding, and his team crashes the glass harder than any other program in the country.
Baylor’s no-middle defense and guard-driven ball pressure combine to disrupt the opponent’s flow, leading to 28th-lowest Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, but that also causes more open gaps for Houston to hit the boards. The Cougars don’t turn the ball over much, either, which is how the Bears’ defense is most disruptive. They’ve forced 69 takeaways in their first four tournament games, but those teams simply didn’t have the reliable ball handlers that Houston possesses.
If Sampson’s team finishes around the rim and gets to the line a bit, especially since Baylor guard Davion Michell will likely lock onto Houston guard Quentin Grimes (18.0 ppg), Baylor will be forced to operate in the halfcourt.
At the other end, the Cougars have notched the 11th-lowest opponent's 3-point percentage (29.2%) — to go along with a top-110 perimeter scoring rate. The Cougars’ ball pressure can be just as disruptive as Baylor’s, and Cougs guard DeJon Jarreau will be a nightmare defensively for the Bears’ Jared Butler (16.5 ppg) and MaCio Teague (15.9 ppg).
The Pick: Houston +5.5 or better
Wallach
Gonzaga Team Total Over 79.5
Gonzaga is 30-0. They have scored less than 80 points in just three of those 30 games.
This is an offensive juggernaut that plays at the third fastest pace on offense in the country.
Yes, UCLA plays outside the top 300 in tempo, but they are going to struggle to keep up with the Zags and their speed on the perimeter.
Once the Bruins fall behind, they will have to play faster, only helping this bet.
Gonzaga has the best two-point offense in the country, hitting on nearly 64% of their attempts. The offense is anchored by a capable big in Drew Timme who can score at will around the block. In this matchup, he'll be able to pass out of double teams and make the Bruins defense pay.
I do believe Mark Few’s Bulldogs cover the two touchdown spread, but I’m more confident in them breaking 80 points. The O is humming and they know they're on the verge of history.
UCLA was able to grind the Michigan game to a halt, winning 51-49. But, that won’t work against the Bulldogs, who scored 85 points on one of the best defenses in the country in USC on Tuesday.
It's been a fun ride for the Bruins, who got some help from the free throw line along the way, but the journey ends here as Gonzaga blitzes them from the tip.
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