The second half of the NBA season begins on Wednesday night in what should be a compelling stretch run. Which teams should bettors be eyeing? There are three teams with betting value for the second half of the season.
In the Eastern Conference, the No. 4 seed Celtics and No. 12 seed Wizards are separated by four games. There’s a little more distance in the West, but it’s still close. The seventh seed Spurs are five games ahead of the No. 12 seed Thunder with a whole half of the season remaining.
Keep an eye out for these few teams that I’m buying heading into the second half.
Miami Heat
Health is the key to the Heat. Miami is 14-8 with Jimmy Butler and 4-10 without him. We all know how vital Butler is to the success of this Heat team and his extended bout with COVID-19 earlier in the year had Miami scrambling.
The Heat are more than 11 points better with Butler on the floor than when he is off, per Cleaning the Glass.
Now that Butler is healthy, things are starting to fall into place. Miami was 26th in point differential up until January 31st, but that shot up to sixth from February to the All-Star break. The Heat are the No. 6 seed in the East, and are primed for a big second half.
While the bottom half of the conference playoff picture is cluttered right now, the team has the fourth easiest schedule to finish the season, per Tankathon. That should continue to stabilize amidst good health.
Chicago Bulls
Staying in the Eastern Conference, I believe the Bulls can keep their head above water in the bottom half of the Eastern Conference playoff picture as a few other teams slip back behind the pack.
Chicago does have a difficult schedule to finish the season -- sixth most difficult according to Tankathon -- but the team has been playing above expectation all season.
According to Cleaning the Glass, the Bulls have the third highest point differential relative to the average Vegas spread, meaning they are crushing oddsmakers numbers.
There can be some regression in this department from a spread perspective, but I’m still buying the Bulls.
Chicago has morphed into a strong defensive club over the last month, sporting the ninth best defense in the league over the past month on a points per possession perspective. That is up from 27th before that.
With Zach LaVine playing at an All Star level, the Bulls have a legitimate No. 1 threat on offense to go with their improving defense.
FanDuel currently has the Bulls at +310 to make the playoffs. I like those odds because I see this team likely in the play-in game, where I will take my chance on a budding star in LaVine to get this done in a win or go home scenario.
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets have a true MVP candidate in Nikola Jokic on the roster, but it has been the play of Jamal Murray that has me itching to bet them during the second half of the season.
Over his last 15 games, Murray is up to over 25 points on 52/44/90 splits with four rebounds and four assists. For someone who struggled with nagging injuries and some regression from a historic bubble run, the Kentucky product seems to be finding his form.
The Nuggets have also taken a step forward on the defensive end, 16th best in the league, per Cleaning the Glass. It’s not championship level, but with a top five offense, the Nuggets can live with that.
As Denver has erased a slow start, the team now sits sixth in the West and only two games out of fourth, as the schedule eases up. The Nuggets have the fifth easiest schedule in the league after the All Star break.
Mike Malone’s squad may be primed for a second half surge.
Reed is a native of New Jersey and graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He is a die-hard Brooklyn Nets fan and always believes the spread has a chance of covering. You can follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach for more commentary.