Selection Sunday is a little over a week away. While the NCAA Tournament brings a ton of sports betting opportunities, bettors can also wager on the bracket reveal ahead of the games.
DraftKings Sportsbook has provided several seed totals ahead of the bracket announcement on Sunday, March 14.
One team stuck out as showing value on their seed total.
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Iowa Hawkeyes 2.5 (O -100, U -125)
The money is shaded towards the under on this prop, meaning DK believes it’s more likely that the Hawkeyes will get either the No. 1 or 2 seed in the tournament than a No. 3 seed or higher, which I agree with.
This price seems off for a few reasons. For starters, Iowa is currently on the two-line of all respected bracketologists projections. At this point, if Iowa avoids a serious setback, they will remain in that position.
The Hawkeyes play a reeling Wisconsin team at home that they matchup favorably with before the Big Ten Tournament starts next Wednesday.
Several teams will go on deep conference tournament runs over the next week and improve their standing with the selection committee, but either way, it won't be enough to knock Iowa too far down.
Iowa is one of the more projectable teams in the country. Led by likely National Player of the Year Luka Garza, the Hawkeyes dominate inferior competition and struggle against the elite.
Even though Iowa is 6-6 against Quad 1 competition, they have just one loss to any team outside of that. It’s tough to poke holes through their resume to drop them off the two line.
The only situation where Iowa slips is by being bounced early in the Big Ten Tournament next week, which seems unlikely given that they are in position to receive a double bye. A win in the quarterfinals would all but wrap up a top two seed for Fran McCaffery’s Hawkeyes.
Even with a loss, it would take some drastic changes in the national landscape to get Iowa to the three line with their resume.
If Iowa, one of the most consistent teams in the country, can stay the course over the next 10 days, they are sure to be a top two seed come next Sunday.
I’d bet this up to -150.
Pick: Under 2.5 -125