The Big Ten is loaded this college basketball season, with four teams comprising the eight shortest betting odds to win the 2021 National Championship at FanDuel Sportsbook.
The conference has been extremely competitive with No. 3 Michigan proving to be the class of the conference. The 16-1 Wolverines were able to beat No. 4 Ohio State on the road last weekend, but still have to face No. 9 Iowa and No. 5 Illinois on the road.
Here are some key metrics around the conference this season.
*Rutgers odds are not present at DraftKings, those odds are courtesy of the Westgate Superbook.
The bracketology tab is courtesy of friend of BetQL U Lukas Harkins’ February 23rd bracket.
Michigan
It all starts at the top with the Wolverines. Michigan sat on the sidelines for three weeks due to a COVID-19 pause and returned without missing a beat. Michigan disposed of Wisconsin and Rutgers before the aforementioned win over Ohio State in a Game of the Year contender this past Sunday.
Juwan Howard and his team have cemented themselves as the No. 3 team in college basketball behind Gonzaga and Baylor. On offense, Michigan is anchored by freshman star Hunter Dickinson. The 7’1” big man is averaging 15 points and nearly eight rebounds on greater than 64% shooting from the field.
Flanked by wings Franz Wagner and Isaiah Livers, the Wolverines have one of the most complete offensive attacks, seventh in KenPom’s offensive efficiency metric.
Michigan is capable of hoisting from three, 16th in the nation in three-point percentage. However, the offense does most of its damage from the inside, 89th two-point rate in college basketball. The team also moves the ball with ease, posting the 51st best assist rate.
On the defensive end, Michigan does not turn their opponents over, but they make up for it with the 55th highest defensive rebounding rate and one of the lowest opponent free throw rates in the country.
By limiting their foes to one chance and few freebies, Michigan is able to overwhelm their opponents with their potent offense.
This is not a fluke, Michigan is a contender for the Final Four, and the biggest threat to stop Gonzaga or Baylor.
However, the odds are too short to bite at +450.
With two tough opponents on tap, this number may dip back down right ahead of the NCAA Tournament with a loss likely somewhere on the horizon.
Keep an eye out for better odds.
Ohio State
I do like this Ohio State team. They are a cohesive unit with a ton of experience, a key for a March run. Outside of E.J. Lidell and Zed Key, this roster is pretty much all upperclassmen.
However, the Michigan game on Sunday was a necessary correction to their defensive numbers.
The Buckeyes, who currently rank 86th in defensive efficiency, had been allowing opponents to shoot over 34% from deep over their seven-game winning streak. This number isn’t stellar and right on line with their season average, which is outside the top 200 in defending the three-point line.
It's defense didn’t matter as much because of it’s scintillating perimeter attack, hitting on 40% of their shots from beyond the arc.
The Buckeyes do have four rotation players shooting above 35% from deep on the season, but the defense is going to need to be on its game as they are due for some regression.
This past Sunday, with the margins razor thin, Michigan was able to win the turnover margin (plus-two) and the offensive rebounding battle (plus-three) en route to their victory.
Ohio State is 327th in the nation in opponent turnover rate -- notice a trend with these Big Ten teams -- and has seen its offensive rebounding rate dip to 28% in conference play, eighth best in the B1G.
The team is 27th in the nation in free throw rate. If the Buckeyes do hit some cold shooting stretches, they are able to get to the line and convert, shooting at a top 20 clip from the charity stripe.
The floor for the Buckeyes come tournament time is a No. 2 seed, so it’s in great shape all things considered, but it is going to need to find some more reliable defense to make a run into March.
I don’t recommend playing +1100 on the Buckeyes to win it all, as their defensive woes may prove to be to pivotal come tournament time. If these odds were to go out past +2000, I’d be more interested, but not sure those numbers are coming back.
Illinois
Illinois may not be the consensus No. 2 team in the Big Ten, but that is where I have Ayo Dosunmo and the Illini.
The Chicago native is putting together a late run at the Wooden Award and has Illinois playing their best ball of the season. The team has won their last seven and is inside the top 10 in both KenPom’s offensive and defensive metrics.
Similar to Michigan, the Illini struggle at generating turnovers, 297th in the nation in turnover rate, but the team makes up for it with its high octane offense.
Brad Underwood’s club is inside the top 100 in adjusted tempo, per KenPom, another reason they are also 15th in the country in defensive rebounding rate.
Factor that in with a D that limits three-point attempts -- 59th in opponent three-point rate -- and the Illini are constantly getting out in transition.
Dosunmu is the most clutch player in college hoops who is really starting to find his stride. He is averaging almost 19 points with five rebounds and six assists on 50/43/74 shooting splits during this seven game heater.
Illinois is peaking at the right time and will be dangerous come March. There is a path for the Orange Crush to grab the fourth No. 1 seed depending on how they finish the season, but they are in great shape to avoid the Gonzaga and Baylor regions as a No. 2 seed.
+1500 is a great bet on Illinois who has the talent to go to the Final Four, and could have what it takes to dethrone Gonzaga or Baylor when the time comes.
Iowa
There is talk about the emergence of the Iowa defense sparking the team’s four-game winning streak.
However, I am still not buying them as a Final Four threat, especially at their listed odds of +20000.
Back-to-back road games against Michigan and Ohio State this week should show that this team remains limited if it is not scorching from beyond the arc.
Of course, there is likely National Player of the Year Luka Garza (-2000 at DraftKings as of this writing). The center is leading the nation in scoring at 24.7 points and over eight rebounds. Garza has a sky high usage rate of 33.3% and is capable of winning games on his own.
There is no denying that Garza has the talent to push this Hawkeye team deep into March, but the defense remains suspect.
Iowa still struggles with dynamic ball handlers and teams that can keep up with their three-point heavy attack. Dosunmo was dynamite against Iowa a few weeks back, a Illinois victory.
The following week, Ohio State had the shooters to go toe-to-toe with the Hawkeyes as well as the physicality to limit the Iowa offense down the stretch. When Iowa has played the Big Ten elite, it has fallen.
Iowa is a poor rebounding team, 261st in opponent offensive rebounding rate, and allows more threes than they actually take.
Iowa has moved from outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency to 75th over the past week. However, the four opponents they faced on this win streak place outside the top six in Big Ten offensive efficiency. I need to see this defense against the elite of the conference again before changing my opinion.
Reed is a native of New Jersey and graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He is a die-hard Brooklyn Nets fan and always believes the spread has a chance of covering. You can follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach for more commentary.
