There are a handful of intriguing games on Wednesday's slate, but the biggest one goes down in Boise. Utah State is playing its first game since early February due to COVID-19 protocols, but remains at the top of the competitive Mountain West Conference.
The Aggies are taking on Boise State, who has slipped from a hot start, but are still vying for an NCAA Tournament bid. I see betting value on the short home favorite.
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Where: Boise, Idaho
Time: 9 PM EST
Watch: CBS Sports Network
Boise State (-1.5, 137.5) vs. Utah State
After dropping two close games on the road to Nevada, Boise won both games against UNLV over the weekend, albeit in not the most convincing fashion.
Even though Boise may not be the class of the Mountain West like it seemed earlier in the year, I’m not sure Utah State is either. I can’t back the traveling Aggies in this spot considering they are playing their first game since February 4th.
Boise is going to need to find a way to slow down big man Neemias Queta. The 7’0” Aggie big is averaging more than 12 points and nine rebounds with three blocks on the year.
Last season, it was a tale of two games for Queta, who fouled out in an overtime loss in Boise with 12 points and six rebounds. However, at home, he was dominant, swatting five shots while scoring 21 points in a win.
I believe the Broncos are in position to limit Queta with their much improved defense compared to last season. Boise State does a great job of limiting extra opportunities on the defensive end, posting the second best opponents offensive rebounding percentage in league play as well as opponent free throw rate.
Utah State doesn’t get to the line very often, bottom half of the conference in free throw rate. However, behind Queta’s high motor and length, lead the MWC in offensive rebound rate. Boise has to keep up the good work on the glass.
USU is the better rated defense, per KenPom, but Boise has the size down low to get to the line, third in MWC play in free throw rate and has four shooters that shoot above 37% from three in the rotation.
The Aggies defense is allowing opponents to shoot 30% from deep and under 40% on two-point shots, per KenPom. Those numbers are unsustainable and Boise’s dynamic offense should cause some issues for Utah State on Wednesday night.
While Boise may have regressed to the mean over the past two weeks, is Utah State due for a similar regression? The Aggies toughest opponents in MWC play have been San Diego State and Colorado State in back-to-back series at home.
This will be the toughest challenge for Utah State since league play started and it's coming at an inopportune time, playing their first game in nearly two weeks.
I have noticed that teams coming off COVID-19 pauses have been especially slow starting, so for this game I am going to split my bet between Boise first half and Boise for the full game. I expect the Broncos to come out hot while Utah State still gets their legs underneath them.
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Pick: Boise 1H ML -125 .5 unit, Boise FG ML -125 .5 unit
Reed is a native of New Jersey and graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He is a die-hard Brooklyn Nets fan and always believes the spread has a chance of covering. You can follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach for more commentary.
