The college basketball betting slate for Saturday is loaded with north of 100 games. There are ranked matchups such as No. 13 West Virginia at No. 12 Texas all the way down to a less relevant Cal at Washington at 10 PM. It’s a 12 hour hoops buffet and we are not moving.
There are angles to every game and we are sure that there is going to be action all over the board. Here were three games that caught my eye for Saturday.
Odds are courtesy of PointsBet on Friday evening
Tulane (PK, 127.5) vs. Central Florida - 12 PM
These two played last Friday, a 53-49 win for Central Florida with the Green Wave covering the 4.5-point spread.
A week later, I like Tulane to get revenge and win outright at home. The young team has been playing inspired basketball lately, going 2-1 on their three-game road trip. Besides the loss to UCF, Tulane was able to win at Tulsa and South Florida.
The Green Wave do a great job at limiting turnovers and generating free throw opportunities. This is crucial because Tulane struggles to shoot from deep, hitting on just 28% of three’s in AAC play.
Neither team is dynamite on the offensive end, but I am backing Tulane to be able to get to the free throw line more often than the three-point reliant Golden Knights, who are hoisting 40% of their field goal attempts from beyond the arc.
Further, UCF coughs up the ball at will, 302nd in the country in turnover rate. Against a Tulane team that has a steal rate over 10%, this can spell trouble.
I expect an ugly game, but I see this young Tulane team turning a corner and think they add another win on Saturday.
Pick: Tulane PK
LSU (-4.5, 163.5) vs. Auburn - 4 PM EST
This game is going to be a ton of fun with both teams racing up and down the floor.
The shine has worn off Sharife Cooper and Auburn, losers of three of their past four. A flaw with the team is their ball security. War Eagle is 12th in SEC play in turnover percentage, and 11th in generating them.
To counter, LSU has the lowest turnover rate in the league. This game is sure to have fireworks, but if Auburn is going to be forfeiting possessions, and unable to get them back on the other end, I expect the Bayou Bengals to run win comfortably.
These two are second and third in conference play in offensive efficiency, but the sloppy play of Auburn, along with their poor form of late, has me looking at Will Wade’s Tigers to cover the short number at home.
Pick: LSU -4.5, play to -5.5.
No. 9 Virginia (PK, 131.5) at Duke - 8 PM EST
Duke has rattled off two straight wins against sub-par competition in North Carolina State and Wake Forest.
Stud freshman Jalen Johnson left the team this week, but Duke has looked better without him, so now people are asking, “Is Duke back?”
Simply put, no.
I am not anointing Duke anywhere near a tournament team after beating NC State and Wake Forest, and I will pay to see them prove their worth against Virginia.
Duke likes to speed teams up and play in the semi- transition before defenses can set themselves. That is going to be problematic on Saturday night against Virginia, who is 344th in the country in tempo.
UVA does not turn the ball over -- second lowest turnover rate in ACC play -- and shoots the ball incredibly well from the perimeter, over 41% from beyond the arc.
While some regression could be coming, Duke’s leaky defensive sets have led to a ton of open opportunities. Teams are shooting nearly 39% from deep against the Blue Devils in ACC play. Duke is constantly hunting for steals, 27th in the country in steal percentage. However, Virginia is too sure handed with the rock, so the Cavs don't play into the Blue Devils' strength.
After the Florida State loss on Monday, many may be selling off Virginia and buying into the narrative that Duke is back. I’m not. Tony Bennett’s Virginia team’s are 48-28-2 against the spread in conference play off of a loss. I expect a strong bounceback from a disciplined UVA team.
Pick: Virginia PK, play to -2
Reed is a native of New Jersey and graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He is a die-hard Brooklyn Nets fan and always believes the spread has a chance of covering. You can follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach for more commentary.
