After going 6-10 in 2014, Atlanta Falcons head coach Dan Quinn, a man with a defensive background, hired Kyle Shanahan as his offensive coordinator. Two seasons later, the Falcons were Super Bowl-bound. The day after the title game, Shanahan was poached by the 49ers for their top job, and Atlanta hasn’t reached .500 since.
The Jets have the NFL’s longest current playoff drought (10 years), so Gang Green fans will surely be elated with such an achievement somewhere during the tenure of Robert Saleh – who spent the last four seasons as Shanahan’s defensive coordinator in San Francisco before agreeing to a five-year contract on Thursday to succeed Adam Gase.
However, the truth is that any success from Saleh’s offensive coordinator, assumed to be San Francisco passing game coordinator Mike LaFleur, will be treated as wizardry after New York’s pathetic 2-14 mark this season.
Assume for a moment that general manager Joe Douglas selects BYU quarterback Zach Wilson with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. What if Wilson, who many experts believe would be a perfect fit in a 49ers-styled offensive system, vaults the Jets to maybe 8-8 by running a functional attack as a rookie?
Say goodbye to Mike LaFleur.
No matter the huzzahs being thrown Douglas’ way in most of the media for securing his top target, the Jets will always have to worry about the risk that comes when you don’t have an offensive schemer/play-caller at the helm. Replacing offensive coordinators, especially when you’re trying to develop a young quarterback, adds to the degree of difficulty…or weren’t the Mark Sanchez and Sam Darnold experiences with ever-changing coordinators sufficient evidence?
Obviously, not all offensive coordinators make good head coaches, with Gase as Exhibit A (and B). You still need to identify candidates who have all the traits that supposedly made Saleh so enticing to Douglas, such as passion, leadership, and the ability to connect with players.
Of the nine candidates Douglas interviewed, only Marvin Lewis had any prior head coaching experience, so Saleh doesn’t have a comparable record showing how he views in-game decision-making, such as going for fourth downs. Still, I worry that head coaches with defensive bents, like Tennessee’s Mike Vrabel, might be more inclined to trust that side of the ball to get a stop in the fourth quarter when the last thing you should want to do is give up on a possession. When Vrabel opted to punt on a fourth-and-two from the Baltimore 40 while down 17-13 with 10 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter of last weekend’s Wild Card playoff game, the Titans’ win probability dropped by 7.9 percent, which ranked as one of the most egregious punts of the entire season.
Of the eight remaining playoff teams, only Baltimore and Buffalo have head coaches who did not come up through the ranks as offensive specialists, and the Bills’ ascension could easily cost them prized offensive coordinator Brian Daboll as soon as the Bills’ season ends and he can interview in-person. Don’t think that’s a coincidence, with the NFL’s evolution into a league with an increasing emphasis on passing offense every season.
ESPN’s Rich Cimini opined that the Jets hope Saleh will be their Pete Carroll. If it is the Pete Carroll of the last five seasons, where Seattle has wasted prime years of one of the league’s best quarterbacks in Russell Wilson, then that’s a hard pass. After Seattle failed last weekend to beat a visiting Rams team, one with a quarterback couldn’t throw the ball and a stud defensive lineman (Aaron Donald) lost in the third quarter, Carroll actually declared that the Seahawks needed to run the ball more. Not better, but more. No wonder the Twitter hashtag “LetRussCook” trends every Sunday.
Maybe the Jets didn’t want to wait on Daboll, thought Carolina offensive coordinator Joe Brady was too young, and/or weren’t wowed by either Tennessee OC Arthur Smith’s second interview or Kansas City OC Eric Bieniemy’s first interview.
Maybe Saleh will be a good head coach and spur a Jets revival. H did work wonders in San Francisco, especially this season – having his D place fifth in yards allowed per game despite a decimating rash of injuries to several Pro Bowlers.
However, how sustainable can it be when the main driver of NFL success is out of his control?
For a FAN’s perspective of the Nets, Devils and Jets, follow Steve on Twitter @SteveLichtenst1.
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