Chichester: Recent World Series teams have entered playoffs with much worse than Clay Holmes
Clay Holmes was public enemy No. 1 in Yankees Universe once again on Sunday night, coughing up a 1-0 lead in the ninth against the Tigers for his 10th blown save of the season.
For Holmes, it is his ninth blown save in his last 22 chances, and the righty is pitching to a 4.80 ERA in that span. After an All-Star nod earlier this season, Holmes has become the primary target for the fanbase when it comes to forecasting what will doom the Yanks this time in October. Typically, fans point to an offense that disappears in the playoffs, or a lack of timely hitting. But this time, the consensus seems to be that Holmes, and the lack of a true shutdown closer, will be the main reason the franchise’s postseason frustrations will continue.
It’s easy to picture that result just after Holmes blows another save in an eventual loss. But World Series teams have entered October on far shakier ground in the back end of their bullpen and have come away victorious. In fact, you don’t have to go back far at all to find examples.
Take a look at last year’s World Series, when the Rangers defeated the surprising Diamondbacks in five games. Sure, not many fans actually watched that Fall Classic, but heading into that postseason, the bullpens for both teams felt like a major issue. For Texas, Will Smith was the team’s closer, and finished the year with a 4.40 ERA, a mark nearly as bad as Holmes since late June. Brock Burke, the team’s innings leader out of the bullpen, finished with a 4.37 ERA. Behind those two, Cody Bradford pitched 56 innings and pitched to a 5.30 ERA. As a whole, the Rangers bullpen finished with a 4.77 ERA, the seventh-worst mark in all of baseball. Fast forward to the postseason, and the closer role was handed to Jose Leclerc, who pitched to a 3.29 ERA in October and held opponents to a .184 batting average. Unexpected saviors like Josh Sborz came up big, and Bradford turned things around by allowing just one run in 7.2 innings of work.
As for the D-backs, they were below league average by most metrics in bullpen stats in 2023, but got to the World Series with a collective 2.94 ERA, and surprising arms like Kevin Ginkel didn’t allow a single run all postseason, and sidearmer Ryan Thompson allowed three runs in 11.2 innings after being cut by the Rays earlier in the season.
So, the lesson here? Holmes is not only better than every reliever named above when looking at track record, but he has shown extended spurts of dominance that can return in October. Holmes didn’t allow an earned run until May 20, and was similarly dominant through the first half of 2022. He has pitched to a 2.75 ERA in 176.2 innings since his first full season in pinstripes. Those kind of numbers would play in October.
Would Holmes likely give Yankee fans several heart palpitations in the playoffs? Probably. Could it still result in wins? Absolutely. Like any World Series winning team, there will have to be some luck involved. Holmes will need some soft grounders to not find holes, and will need to come up with a big pitch here and there to get timely outs. But teams have won it all with bigger bullpen concerns than the Yankees currently have. Why can’t Luke Weaver be the next Ginkel or Thompson? Why can’t Tommy Kahnle, who has plenty of postseason experience, go on a run and get big outs in late innings?
Holmes pitching like he has been of late is certainly a problem. The team’s trade deadline acquisitions in the bullpen looking like busts already is a bigger issue. Still, teams have entered October with even more glaring issues and come out on top. Plenty will have to go right, and the Yankee lineup will still have to hit like the Rangers did last year, but that is the case for any championship team. The bullpen and Holmes are a reason for concern, but not a reason to write off the Yanks as a team capable of winning it all.
