The New Orleans Saints are officially into spoiler season.
Already eliminated from the playoffs, the Saints can at least lean into some rivalry energy the rest of the way, with Week 14 representing the first of three NFC South games over the final five games of the year. That stretch starts with the Bucs, a chance to avenge a 20-point defeat in Week 9 that doubled as the end of Spencer Rattler's run as a starter and the begin of Tyler Shough's. Will this matchup look any different?
THE GAME | Saints (2-10) at Bucs (7-5)
- When: Noon, Sunday, Dec. 7
- Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
- Series history: Saints lead 40-28
- Last meeting: 2025, Bucs 23, Saints 3
- Betting: Bucs -8.5; over/under 41.5
- TV: CBS
- Listen: WWL AM-870; FM-105.3 & the Audacy app
- Pregame: First Take with Steve Geller & Charlie Long, 8 to 10 a.m.; Countdown to Kickoff with Steve Geller & Bobby Hebert, 10 a.m. to noon
The good news for the Saints is they've dominated Raymond James Stadium in recent years. New Orleans has walked out of Tampa with a win in five of their past seven visits, and they've even been in control of the losses. One camp last year in Week 18 with the injury-depleted Saints leading by 10 at halftime. The other came back in 2021, a game the Andy Dalton-led Saints were controlling 13-0 in the 4th quarter prior to a wild Tom Brady rally. Why not keep that trend rolling?
With all that in mind, here are the three things I'm looking for when the Saints look to get back to winning ways in this year's visit to the Tampa.
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Can the run game (finally) pop?
Over the past seven games the Saints have only cracked 100 rushing yards one time. You can probably guess which game that was -- 122 yards on the ground in a win over the Panthers.
In the other six, all losses, the totals were: 73, 44, 48, 57, 79 and 81 yards.
“Any time in this league is you become one-dimensional it’s very difficult to win, so establishing the running game is a big deal for us," OC Doug Nussmeier said this week. "Obviously we’ve had some issues, some challenges up front at times, you know, maybe we haven’t hit the right hole with the back at times, scheme hasn’t been exactly what we’ve wanted from a coaching standpoint. So, we’ve all taken our turns. It’s something that we’ve got to get better at, it’s as simple as that.”
The last two games have been an interesting case study in that respect. The Saints only managed 25 yards on 8 carries in the first half of a loss to the Falcons. They came out to start the third quarter with a 15-play drive that leaned on RB Devin Neal and, despite some failures at the goal line, dictated the action and controlled the ball the entire second half. In the second half, despite playing from behind, it was 54 on 20.
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A week later? The same story. The Saints managed just 8 yards on 7 carries the ground through the first five offensive series. From that point? but really started to assert themselves with Neal to start the third quarter and nearly clawed all the way back from a 16-0 hole. From the final series of the first half through the end of the game it was 20 for 73 yards.
Whether it's scheme or execution, the Saints need to take that second half efficiency and come out of the gate with it. It won't be easy. The Bucs rank 6th in the NFL while allowing just over 97 yards per game, but that average has climbed to 107 over the past four, with the Bucs losing three of those games.
What would help is finding some explosive opportunities. The Saints still have just one 20-plus-yard run on the year and that was from Taysom Hill. The Saints' 24 rushes of 10-plus yards ranks dead last in the NFL.
If the Saints want things to look easier on offense, they have to run the ball better.
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Can you hit Baker?
When I asked Saints DC Brandon Staley if he thought Baker Mayfield's shoulder injury was limited him in any way, he didn't mince words.
“I wish it was slowing him down. ... He had a really good performance last week, I didn’t see a dip, you know, in his performance and that’s what makes him such a special quarterback is that he’s going to play with a ton of guts and will his team and he’s going to be out there if he can, so I didn’t see it.
He went on to add: "If it’s bothering him, he’s doing a good job of hiding it.”
Whether you can see it or not, I'm fairly certain it's that last part. Baker is a tough dude. He's going to grit through a lot (and I'd imagine a certain amount of painkillers will help him in that regard), but AC joint sprains don't heal in two weeks.
All that is to say, the Saints need to make him feel it. That's not to say they should be taking cheap shots, but the pass rush needs to put him on the ground and see how he responds. The Saints defense has done that well in recent weeks, rolling up 14 sacks over the past five games, including three when these two teams met a little over a month ago.
That won't happen if the Bucs are playing with a double-digit lead, which has been a theme for the Saints in a majority of their games this season. New Orleans needs to stop Bucky Irving (who didn't play in the last meeting) and force Baker to win the game.
What's interesting is I expected to see Baker's time to throw go down last week against the Cardinals, but it actually went up to 3.05 from his season average of 2.84. What did change was his average depth of target, which dropped to 7.7 yards from his season average of 8.5. Those figures combine to be an indicator that Baker isn't sticking around in the pocket to get hit, which means the downfield routes won't have as much time to develop and it's more about the scramble drill than shot plays. Saints will have to play well in that second phase to win this game, both in coverage and with the rush.
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Can you handle the blitz?
I feel like a broken record, but it's yet another week where the Saints have to manage a defense that sends extra rushers at one of the highest rates in the NFL. The Falcons are second in blitz rate (xxx), the Dolphins are sixth (xxx) and the Bucs, they're No. 3, sending five or more rushers on xxx of their defensive snaps.
How has rookie QB Tyler Shough and the Saints OL handled it? Eh, results have been mixed.
Here are the numbers for Shough:
- When not blitzed: 86-117 (73.5%), 801 yards, 3 TDs, 3 INTs, 11 sacks, 2 throwaways
- When blitzed: 21-47 (44.7%), 267 yards, 2 TDs, INT, 3 sacks, 4 throwaways
You're reading that correctly. The rookie QB is completing an astounding 73.5% of his throws when he's not blitzed. That number drops by nearly 30 points when there's an extra rusher in the mix.
It's not so much a red flag as a major point of development that the young signal-caller needs to show. Most rookie QBs struggle against pressure. The best of them take those struggles and not only improve, but turn those looks into a weapon.
For perspective, here are Matthew Stafford's splits:
- When not blitzed: 166-246 (67.5%), 1863 yards, 9 TDs, 3 INTs, 8 sacks, 9 throwaways
- When blitzed: 100-155 (64.5%), 1210 yards, 23 TDs, 1 INT, 9 sacks, 6 throwaway
The completion percentage is roughly the same, but look at the touchdowns. When Stafford gets blitzed, he attacks it (and usually wins). He also has the benefit of throwing to Davante Adams and Puka Nacua, but the point still stands.
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Another comparison stat to consider: Stafford's time to throw drops from 2.79 to 2.47 when a blitz is sent. Shough's time to throw actually increases from 2.7 to 2.89. That's due in part to Shough extending plays, but it's also indecision.
What we saw last week in the second half was Shough doing his work prior to the ball being snapped. He was setting protection, re-IDing the mike, attacking the pressure.
The final five games are all about taking steps forward, that's one of the biggest steps I'd like to see.
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LAGNIAPPE
Taliese Fuaga will be missing his fourth game this season, and that means another start for Asim Richards. Say what you want about this offseason's trades, the players brought in have handled A LOT of snaps. ... Justin Reid will miss his first game of the season. I'm looking at Terrell Burgess to take on the bulk of the snaps with Jordan Howden handling a dime role. ... Charlie Smyth wasn't signed to the active roster, but he is still the kicker. His coaches have made a point to emphasize that last week was the fun part, from hereon out it's all about being a professional, but the leg strength could be a bit of a sea change. Phil Galiano said the FG target line will be the 45 yard line, meaning once the Saints get to that point, the kicking game has the green light. I don't anticipate many 63-yarders, but it's on the table. As far as an end-of-half or end-of-game scenario? Get the ball to the 50, and that kick is on the table -- a 68-yard attempt. Giddy up. ... Last week it was Evan Hull getting the first run at the RB2 reps and he's continued to impress coaches. It'll be interesting to see if the Saints look his way again or give some run to Audric Estime. ... The Saints signed Dante Pettis from the practice squad after maxing out his three elevations. He'll continue in the punt return role. ... Cam Jordan notched his first two incentive escalators last week with a pair of sacks that earned him $600,000. He now leads the team with 6.5. He's got three more levels to climb in that regard. Sack Nos. 7 and 8 would be worth $400,000 each, while No. 9 would be $600,000. More importantly he's putting forth a season that shows there's a bit more in the tank than he got credit for. ... Last time the Saints met it up it was Anthony Nelson making an impact with a forced fumble and a pick-6, but he's not actually the Bucs' starter. Haason Reddick didn't play in that game, but he will in this one. He's had a limited impact this season, but he's still a dynamic rusher.