Have we all lost our (football) minds?
That’s all I keep thinking as voice after voice (from WIP caller, to draft expert, to ex-NFL player) chimes in with another take on how the Eagles have to use one of their two first-round picks on another wide receiver.
Are we hoping the Eagles build the best fantasy football team, or actual football team? Do we want the Eagles to make history, and be mentioned in the same realm as the Matt Milllen Lions? And are we totally ignoring recent NFL history, including where the top wide receivers come from?
Let’s try to add some sanity to a conversation that’s lost all of it this offseason.
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This entire debate and discussion is really nothing more than supply vs. demand. Even though I’m out on drafting a wide receiver in the first round, anyone with eyes can acknowledge that the Eagles do need another quality wide receiver. It’s why we heard rumors about Calvid Ridley, Allen Robinson, Christian Kirk and Robert Woods this offseason. Last year’s passing game wasn’t great, and it’s not just about Jalen Hurts. Going into the 2022 season with only DeVonta Smith, Quez Watkins and Zach Pascal as the top three wide receivers on the roster would be a disservice to the chances of making the playoffs in back-to-back years.
But nothing about recent history says that help must come from within the top 32 picks. In fact, it says the opposite.
Over the last decade, 33 wide receivers have either been an initial Pro Bowl selection or made first-team All-Pro. Nearly 60 percent of those players were not selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. Start reeling off a list of the best wide receivers in the NFL. More non-first rounders (Cooper Kupp, A.J. Brown, Deebo Samuel, Devante Adams, D.K. Metcalf, Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, Tee Higgins, Hunter Renfrow, Chris Godwin, Terry McClaurin, Kennan Allen) come to mind more than you likely imagined. Sure, stars like Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson (oops!), Mike Evans and CeeDee Lamb were first rounders. But the evidence is clear: Star wide receivers are available throughout most drafts.
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The same can’t be said for impact defensive lineman, an area the Eagles should be focused on attacking in the first round on April 28. Of the top 10 sack leaders from the 2021 season, eight were drafted in the first round. Blue chip pass rushers and two-way interior defensive lineman rarely slip into the mid-to-later rounds.
In this year’s draft, names like Drake London, Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Treylon Burks and Jameson Williams have everyone excited. But are we sure a few names from that group will turn out to be stars? I’m not. Recently, Mel Kiper Jr. said none of this year’s top five names would be rated as highly as last year’s top three (Chase, Smith, Jaylen Waddle). This first-round wide receiver group is fine, but fine isn’t worth a first rounder when names like George Pickens, Jahan Dotson, Christian Watson, Skyy Moore, Alex Pierce and John Metchie III could be just as good (or better) and available later in the draft.
Part of the reason the Eagles transitioned to a run-based offense midway through the 2021 season was due to a less-than-efficient throwing offense. That’s obvious. But I have also believed a big part of the switch was to help keep a feeble defense off the field. By running the football and shortening the game, the Eagles asked less of a defense that wasn’t talented enough to keep good offenses from scoring. This draft (along with free-agent additions Haason Reddick and Kyzir White) can help change that.
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Last year (despite lots of complaining about the offense and quarterback play), the Eagles finished fourth in third-down success rate, eighth in red zone percentage and first in big plays on offense. The offense, though unorthodox and looking more like something out of Baltimore and less like high-flying throwing teams across the league, was effective. The defense (25th in DVOA, 31st in sacks, 23rd in passer rating against) wasn’t.
If the Eagles are smart, a defensive lineman (Georgia’s Jordan Davis and Devonte Wyatt, Purdue’s George Karlaftis are among my guys) and defensive back (Washington’s Trent McDuffie, Georgia’s Lewis Cine and Michigan’s Daxton Hill also make my favorites list) will be grabbed with the 15th and 18th selections. Or perhaps a trade up to grab a blue-chip talent (Derek Stingley Jr., Kyle Hamilton or Jermaine Johnson III) that’s falling down the board is in the cards.
Then, and only then, should wide receiver be addressed on Day 2 of the draft.
The process of fixing one side of the ball vs. the other isn’t linear in the NFL. It can often get muddled by bad picks and misses (we’re looking at you Jalen Reagor and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside). But the Eagles have spent most of their first (and second) round draft capital in recent years rebuilding the offense. Now it’s time to let Smith and Dallas Goedert emerge as the team’s top two targets. And it’s time to spend some picks to fix a defense that has too many holes to be taken seriously right now.
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An ideal haul with the No. 15, No. 18 and No. 51 picks would look something like this:
No. 15: Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
No. 18: Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
No. 51: George Pickens, WR, Georgia
Yes, the Eagles need to add another quality wide receiver to their current group. But they shouldn’t be foolish enough to think it has to come from the first round.