Phillies baseball is back.
Those four words, especially when combined with a traditional (at least somewhat) Opening Day, makes the upcoming baseball season special.
And the Phillies enter it with a combination of optimism and urgency. For a team that hasn’t made the playoffs in a decade, both are good tenants to build a season on. Much of what we think of this roster and management team will evolve over the next six months. But that doesn’t mean we should hold off takes on this roster, franchise and its short and long-term trajectory.
Allow me to get the ball rolling with 21 takes on the 2021 Phillies
1. Bryce Harper has been as advertised, and worth the money.
The Phillies haven’t been very good in Harper’s first two years here. But don’t put that on the $330M man. Harper has been durable (played in 215 of 222 possible games), productive (.903 OPS, higher than his career mark with Washington), and solid defensively. He’s averaged 37 HR and 112 walks per 162 games played in a Phillies uniform. Power, patience, and a middle-of-the-order building block. Exactly what the Phillies paid for.
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2. Harper’s presence, and agent, should create a sense of urgency to win ASAP. Or else.
The Phillies keep talking about a sense of urgency to win. Part of that is likely driven by two truth’s about Harper: He’s in his prime and his agent (Scott Boras) is powerful. The Phillies should want to win now to maximize the best years of Harper’s contract here. They also have to soon, otherwise this could turn into an Alex Rodriguez-Rangers divorce in the blink of an eye.
3. Dave Dombrowski will (soon) end the Phillies playoff drought, but it will come at a cost.
Dombrowski is a winner. He built something good in Montreal. He won in Florida. He flipped a loser into a winner in Detroit. He brought a parade to Boston. The Dombrowski-led Phillies will win. Playoff baseball will return to South Philly before Dombrowski’s four-year pact runs out. But don’t expect sustained winning to continue when he’s done. In fact, it’ll likely be another rebuild by then.
4. Joe Girardi was a disappointment in his first season as Phillies manager.
The 2020 Phillies were supposed to be different from the 2018 and 2019 group. Surely we’d see improved focus, defense, structure due to bullpen roles (oops!) and a strong September finish with Girardi in Gabe Kapler’s place. None of that happened. The Phillies had a worse winning percentage in 2020 than either of the previous two seasons. The team was horrible down the stretch. Girardi was hired to be a difference maker. He didn’t make a difference in his first season in Philly.
5. John Middleton deserves credit. Now stay out of the way.
No, he’s not paying the tax. But the payroll is way higher than anyone expected a few months ago. Dombrowski was hired. The owner has held up his end of the bargain over the last few months. Now we’ll see if he can back away, pay the tax at the deadline and let Dombrowski build a winner.
6. Stop making excuses for Scott Kingery. He’s just not that good.
Let’s play Scott Kingery Excuse Bingo!
-The Phillies should have just left him at second base (nevermind that his worst career OPS is when he’s playing his “natural” position).
-Launch angle ruined him!
-Gabe Kapler should have never asked him to play multiple positions.
-John Mallee ruined his swing (Kingery’s best season OPS to date was with Mallee in 2019)
-COVID zapped his 2020 season (a fair thought, but he’s seemingly healthy and way past that now).
Did I miss any? Kingery’s career minor league OPS was .772. He was never the star the Phillies assumed. He’ll start his age-27 season in the minors. This player is what he is: Not that good.
7. Odubel Herrera is the Phillies best option in center field right now. He won’t be for long.
Herrera might get a second chance. His play has given him that opportunity. Roman Quinn will get time. Mickey Moniak could push for ABs. Maybe Kingery gets back in the mix. Eventually, the Phillies will realize that Adam Haseley is the team’s best shot at a solid center fielder.
8. We underrate Aaron Nola.
Nola is an ace. Since the start of the 2018 season, he’s made more starts than any pitcher in the sport. He has racked up the second-most innings and sixth-most strikeouts. His ERA ranks 10th over that span among pitchers with 40 starts. Nola isn’t Jacob deGrom or Gerrit Cole. Few are. His September meltdowns are worrisome. He’s far from perfect, and not this team’s Roy Halladay. But we’re watching one of baseball’s best starting pitchers.
9. Zack Wheeler 2020 season was fool’s gold, and needs to miss bats to be a No. 2 starter.
Wheeler’s 2.92 ERA was outstanding last summer. He won’t come close to replicating it unless he starts missing bats again. Wheeler only struckout 6.7 batters per nine innings last season. That’s not much higher than 2007 Jamie Moyer level. Double plays and luck can’t last forever. Wheeler needs to be the power pitcher he was signed to be.
10. I was wrong about Zach Eflin, and can’t wait to watch him pitch.
One year ago, I thought Eflin was on his way to losing a rotation spot. Then he stayed healthy, developed a swing-and-miss curve, and transformed his career. He’ll be an All-Star in 2021.
11. Spencer Howard, Vince Velasquez and troublesome starting pitching depth.
Let’s say the Phillies get 90 starts from the Nola-Wheeler-Eflin trio. That means 72 would have to come from Matt Moore, Chase Anderson, Velasquez, David Hale, Adonis Medina, Bailey Falter and Francisco Morales. Perhaps Howard takes down some, but the Phillies are treating him as a reliever to start the season. This is a big worry.
12. Connor Brogdon and Jose Alvarado will emerge as the top two high-leverage relievers in this bullpen.
Archie Bradley and Brandon Kintzler have the personality to be fan favorites. Brogdon and Alvarado have the arms to dominate.
13. I need to see it to believe it with Rhys Hoskins.
Hoskins, after a slow start, went on a tear last summer. He was thinking opposite field. New hitting instructor Joe Dillon made a difference. But two things give me pause before I sign off on Hoskins re-establishing himself as more than an up-and-down slugger: Huge peaks and valleys within every season, and offseason elbow surgery. I know it wasn’t Tommy John, but many hitters (Didi Gregorius, Matt Wieters, Kendrys Morales ) that had UCL surgery struggled the following season.
14. Defense will be this team’s Achilles' heel.
Other than J.T. Realmuto, there’s not a single above-average defender on the Phillies team. It will cost them runs, and games.
15. Alec Bohm reminds me of Justin Turner, with the potential to be J.D. Martinez.
I first threw out the Bohm-Turner comp last October. The Phillies should do jumping jacks if Bohm becomes what Turner (139 OPS+) has been for the Dodgers. If Bohm unlocks his power, J.D. Martinez 2.0 could be in the Phillies lineup.
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16. Matt Klentak was right about J.T. Realmuto’s market.
The former Phillies GM wasn’t right about much, but guessing player value on the market was one of his strengths. The team benefited by waiting on the Realmuto deal.
17. Andrew McCutchen’s health and effectiveness will be the x-factor for this team.
McCutchen looks more likely himself this spring, especially in the field. It’s a big development, especially without the DH in the National League this year. Can McCutchen play (effectively) 125 games in the field? More? If it’s less, the Phillies will have two outfield weaknesses and a hole atop the order.
18. Dombrowski will make a big move at the trade deadline.
Forget all that talk about sustainability and long term. Dombrowski only knows one way, and that’s driven by aggressiveness.
19. Here are some names the Phillies could be connected to around July 31.
Kentel Marte, Ramon Laureano, Harrison Bader, Sonny Gray, James Paxton, German Marquez.
20. The Phillies will post a winning record for the first time since 2011.
It’s time. This feels like an 84-win team.
21. But it won’t be enough to make the playoffs.
The NL East is too deep, and the lack of an expanded postseason (which MLB and the MLBPA would be smart to reconsider before the first pitch of the season) hurt this dream. The Phillies don’t fall as flat in late September (how could they?), but fail to qualify for the playoffs.