If you're an angry Tigers fan craving some accountability for the team's brutal start, if you're waiting for the dismissal of GM Al Avila with his rebuild stuck on the ground, don't hold your breath.
"He did just get his contract extended, so I think as a practicality he’s got some time to show more production from the farm system," MLB insider Jon Morosi said Tuesday on the Stoney & Jansen Show. "He has that ability, he has the wide berth by ownership to let him see how things unfold for the next year, year-plus. In terms of accountability, I don’t think his job is in jeopardy. I really don’t."
The Tigers gave Avila a multi-year extension in the middle of the 2019 season -- the second full year of a rebuild that began in earnest at the 2017 trade deadline. That was the summer in which Detroit dealt Justin Verlander, J.D. Martinez and Justin Upton and shifted its focus from the present to the future. Four years later, the future has yet to arrive.
That's one view. The other is that is has arrived, arrived in the form of Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal and Willi Castro and others, and the present remains the same. The Tigers are the worst team in baseball, on track to pick first overall in the draft for the third time in a five-year span. And 2022 doesn't look any brighter right now than 2021.
"If you want to say 'OK, is it a five-year plan?' well if it’s five years, that’s the middle of next year when you’re supposed to be good. And I’m not candidly seeing that happen yet," Morosi said. "There have been some bright spots, (Matthew) Boyd has done a tremendous job bouncing back. … But if you’re a Tigers fan looking for a sign that next year you can start thinking about the playoffs, I don’t believe we have seen that yet."
Detroit's top two prospects, Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene, aren't exactly knocking on the door of the majors. Greene could arrive by the end of this season, but that would be quite the leap from Double-A Erie. And Torkelson, the top pick in 2020, is with High-A West Michigan. Meanwhile, outfielder Jarred Kelenic, drafted out of high school the same year the Tigers drafted Mize, is set to debut for the Mariners this week. He's the same age as Torkelson.
"Hindsight's 20-20 and I’m not suggesting in anyway the Tigers should have drafted him No. 1 overall. No one was saying that. But the point is, he’s a pretty young guy and he’s already in the Major Leagues," Morosi said. "And if you look at the ages of the players, this has become such a young person’s sport. Sometimes we say, 'OK, let’s wait on this player, and wait on him and wait on him.' This is not really a wait-on-him kind of era in the game. This is an era where young players like Kelenic come up and are expected to make an impact.
"I think as a result, even with that lost year last year, the time for Torkelson and Greene and Mize and (Matt) Manning and Skubal to quote-unquote ‘settle in,’ there’s not a settle-in period anymore. This is a young person’s game and I really think we need to see some real signs of progress by the star prospects before the end of this year to really think that next year could look different than it does right now."
So, how much longer does Avila have? That's up to owner Chris Ilitch, the same owner who extended Avila's contract in 2019. A lot will likely depend on how the rest of this season plays out and whether or not the Tigers are better positioned for success entering 2022. And whether or not the present looks different a year from now. In other words, don't hold your breath.
"I really think the time to measure Avila’s tenure is in how ready this team is over the next year," Morosi said. "I agree, the Verlander trade has not worked out well. I fully acknowledge that. But I think we’ll have a really good feel and a better perspective on the totality of his tenure by around this time next year. To the fans that are upset and impatient, I understand. But I think as a practicality he has about another year-plus to show some fruits from the farm system."