Not too long ago, Casey Mize was falling behind his fellow first-rounders in the 2018 draft. Now he leads the pack in WAR (1.4) this season.
You can thank the month of May for that.
And with Mize slated to make one more start before the calendar turns to June -- this weekend against the Yankees -- the 24-year-old is closing in on his first major award with the Tigers, an award no Tiger has won since Justin Verlander in 2016: AL Pitcher of the Month.
And maybe AL Rookie of the Month while he's at it.
Through four outings in May, Mize ranks first among AL starters in ERA. And batting average against. And Win Probability Added, according to FanGraphs. He ranks third in WHIP and he's induced soft contact at the fifth highest rate.
In each of these categories, Mize's primary competitors are Corey Kluber and Baltimore's John Means. And maybe this is still Kluber's award to lose after his no-hitter for the Yankees last week. He's slated to make two more starts this month, including Sunday in Detroit. So maybe Mize's teammates can do him a favor.
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However you slice it, Mize has been as dominant as any of his AL counterparts this month. As filthy? Maybe not. His strikeouts are down and his walks are up compared to others in this conversation. But if the conversation begins with run prevention, then it ends with Mize.
He's surrendered five runs in 26 innings in May. Which is all the more impressive, and all the more encouraging for the Tigers, when you remember he surrendered 15 runs in 26 innings in April. (And 25 runs in 28 innings last season.) Mize said 'the old me' was coming. It looks like he's arrived.
For reference, Gerrit Cole of the Yankees won AL Pitcher of the Month in April when he went 4-1 with a 1.43 ERA and .178 batting average against in six starts -- plus 62 strikeouts to three walks. Mize is 2-0 with a 1.73 ERA and a .141 batting average against in four starts in May -- but 20 strikeouts to 10 walks.
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Whether Mize brings home the hardware or not, the Tigers already have to be thrilled about three things he's shown this season: more velo, more first-pitch strikes and as a result more efficiency. Mize averaged 19.1 pitches per inning in 2020. That was down to 16.5 last month, and this month it's down to 14.3. That's how you work deep into games, which is how you set the tone for a pitching staff. Which is how you set the tone for your team.
Just eight Tigers have won AL Pitcher of the Month since the award was introduced in 1979. Verlander won it four times and Jack Morris won it three. And just four Tigers have won AL Rookie of the Month since that award was introduced in 2001. The first was Verlander, in 2006, in the month of May. That season turned out OK for Verlander, who turned out to be an OK pitcher.
Let's see how the rest of this month and the rest of this season turns out for Mize.
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