Casey Mize isn’t just another pitching prospect. He was the first overall selection in the 2018 MLB Draft.
And when he dominated early in his first full professional season in 2019, particularly after throwing a no-hitter in his Double-A debut, Mize was proclaimed as, by far, the best thing about the Tigers' organization.
Yet, since his sizzling minor league start, Mize’s star has faded. He has proven to be decidedly hittable after 11 MLB starts.
The back-to-back comparison last weekend with Kansas City’s Brady Singer was alarming. Entering their draft year, Singer was considered the potential No. 1 overall pick. His velocity was down, and Mize’s up. So Auburn’s Mize went first overall to Detroit, just like virtually all the mock drafts suggested. Florida’s Singer slid to 18th overall.
But Singer has a 1.3 WAR (baseball-reference.com), the best among pitchers, and second overall, from the 2018 MLB Draft. Mize has a minus 0.6 WAR, the worst in the class so far, and the only negative WAR among the ‘18 first-rounders to reach MLB. With position players such as the White Sox Nick Madrigal, the Phillies’ Alec Bohm, the Reds’ Jonathan India and the Cubs’ Nico Hoerner (class-best 1.5 WAR) starting to contribute significantly, Mize is falling behind the curve.
Ryan Weathers is 21, three years younger than Mize. He was taken seventh overall in the ‘18 draft. In 15 innings for San Diego, the lefty has allowed allowed a run and four hits. His WHIP is 0.58 and his WAR 0.8. Jarred Kelenic, a high school outfielder in Seattle’s organization, has yet to make his MLB debut, but is widely considered the best prospect from the ‘18 draft. He was selected sixth overall by the Mets, who traded him as part of a deal for Robinson Cano. Kelenic is a bonafide 5-tool talent with an extraordinarily high ceiling.
It’s not a good look for general manager Al Avila and the Tigers -- or Mize. The Tigers’ flagging rebuild can hardly afford a miss with a first overall pick.
The split-fingered pitch, despite being a blast from the past and often perceived as increasing potential injury, nonetheless was billed as some sort of wonder offering Mize possesses. It was supposedly a plus, plus, plus pitch, which has proven not to be true. Mize’s fastball velocity is up to the 85 MLB percentile this season, a good development, but it doesn’t actually play that quick because of a below-average spin rate. Subsequently, Mize doesn’t miss many bats by today’s standard. He struck out less than a hitter per inning in the minor leagues, and has just 40 K’s in 49 MLB innings. Mize has already allowed 12 home runs.
At 24, first overall pick Gerrit Cole won 19 games with a 2.60 ERA for Pittsburgh. At 23, first overall pick Stephen Strasburg was 15-6 with a 3.16 ERA for Washington. At 24, first overall pick David Price won 19 games, posted a 2.72 ERA and finished second in Cy Young voting for the Rays. At 23, Tigers’ second overall pick Justin Verlander was Rookie of the Year. All four were college pitchers, who developed quickly, and whose franchises made remarkably quick turnarounds to a large degree because of their rapid development.
Mize, who turns 24 this week, will make his 12th MLB start tonight vs. the powerful White Sox. There is no time like the present to turn it around.
The Tigers very much need that to happen. It would be an organizational disaster if this trend continues and Mize doesn’t.