When Casey Mize was selected by the Tigers first overall in the 2018 MLB Draft, it was much-celebrated. The enthusiasm was understandable.
Mize displayed considerable promise on a big college stage at Auburn.
The same draft, in the ninth round at 255th overall, the Tigers picked left-hander Tarik Skubal.
It drew little notice.
At one time considered a potential Top 50 pick, Skubal’s stock dropped after Tommy John surgery.
Just two summers later, it’s fair to wonder if Skubal has the better chance of being a legitimate No. 1 MLB starter -- even though Mize flew through the minor leagues with often dominating performances.
Called up to the Tigers last month, each has made four MLB starts, all against quality MLB lineups. In this sample size, Skubal has been more effective and displayed more upside than Mize.
In his last three starts, Skubal has allowed four earned runs in 13 1/3 innings vs. the Twins (twice) and Cleveland.
That’s a 2.74 ERA. As impressively, he’s struck out 13 and walked just three in those starts. His overall ERA of 4.70 is skewed by a rough first outing vs. the White Sox. But clearly, Skubal has responded.
Conversely, Mize was more impressive in his first outing vs. the White Sox, but has struggled mightily since vs. the Cubs and Twins (twice).
His overall numbers present a 6.75 ERA. Command is considered a strength for Mize, but he’s walked six and hit four batters in 14 2/3 innings while allowing 19 hits.
Beyond the numbers, there is technology.
Skubal’s fastball has been much better than that of Mize in terms of velocity (94.9 MPH compared to 93.9) and spin rate (2,441 revolutions per minute compared to 2,254). Skubal throws his fastball 58 percent of the time, Mize less than 50 percent.
Skubal has sharp, late slant on his slider and a surprisingly good changeup.
Mize’s splitter is a tremendous pitch, but it’s effectiveness has been diminished by lack of command of his other offerings. In particular, he needs to tighten up his various breaking balls.
This isn’t meant as a rush to judgement on either pitcher, just an assessment of what we’ve seen so far in MLB.
I thought Matt Manning, who had a rough summer, was ahead of both entering spring training. I still envision Mize as a top-of-the-rotation starter, who will benefit from his experience this season.
Skubal, obviously, has much more to prove.
But it is amazing it’s a comparison, considering where each was selected in such a recent MLB Draft.