After going a perfect 3-0 yesterday, I’m back at it with two more NBA best bets for today’s slate. The first matchup I’m going to focus on is the Pacers at Nets followed by the Timberwolves at Clippers. Scroll down to see the edges and let’s increase our bankrolls together.
Nets +1.5 1H vs. Pacers (-120, BetMGM)
Despite wildly different expectations heading into this season, the Nets and Pacers have identical 9-13 SU records heading into this game, which is slightly impressive for Brooklyn and very disappointing for Indiana. The Nets have gone 15-7 ATS 1H (2nd-best in NBA) while the Pacers have gone 7-15 ATS 1H (4th-worst in NBA) and the advanced numbers are even more surprising. Brooklyn ranks 6th in the NBA in 1H Offensive Rating (116.4), ahead of the Thunder, while Indiana ranks 22nd in that metric, a clear deviation from last year’s offensive juggernaut.
Cam Thomas, Bojan Bogdanovic and Ziaire Williams are the only three guys that have fully been ruled out due to injuries for the Nets while Aaron Nesmith and Ben Sheppard will be unable to play for the Pacers. I also expect Andrew Nembhard to sit on the second half of a back-to-back since he returned from an injury of his own yesterday. All-in-all, I’m firmly on the Nets in this spot and don’t trust the Pacers at all.
Clippers +3.5 vs. Timberwolves (-115, BetMGM)
Like the teams above, these two teams are off to surprising starts. The Clippers (14-9 SU) have exceeded expectations since Kawhi Leonard has been injured and Paul George is gone while the Timberwolves (10-10 SU) have not made the jump ahead that was projected. Unsurprisingly, Los Angeles has gone 16-7 ATS with a 69.6% cover rate (2nd-best in NBA) while Minnesota has gone just 7-13 ATS with a 35% cover rate (5th-worst in NBA). The Clippers have been the slightly better team as far as advanced team stats are concerned, ranking 10th in Net Rating (+3.8) compared to 11th for the Wolves (+2.3).
LA owns the NBA’s best Defensive Rebounding Rate (74.0%) and has allowed just 11.7 second-chance points (2nd-best in NBA) as a result, so that should neutralize Rudy Gobert’s upside to control the offensive glass and pick up easy points there. The Wolves also only average 12.2 fastbreak points per game (2nd-lowest in NBA), so they’re going to have to work to score against this Clippers defense, which owns the 5th-best Defensive Rating in the Association. I think the Clippers are going to win this game outright (they lost a defensive slugfest 93-92 in their first meeting on November 29), but for some safety, I’ll happily grab them at +3.5.
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