Monday’s NBA slate offers intriguing opportunities for player prop bettors, with several matchups showcasing exploitable trends. From Dennis Schroder stepping into a lead playmaking role for the injury-depleted Nets to Nic Claxton’s dominant inside presence against the Bulls, and Josh Giddey’s all-around game in a favorable matchup, these props present strong value. Dive into my top player prop picks for December 2, complete with analysis and stats to back each play.
Nets PG Dennis Schroder Over 6.5 Assists vs. Bulls (-165, BetMGM)
Cam Thomas, Noah Clowney, Jaylen Martin and Bojan Bogdanovic are all out and Ben Simmons, Cameron Johnson and Ziaire Williams all got injured during last night’s game while Dorian Finney-Smith is also dealing with a nagging ankle injury. In other words, this is likely going to be the Dennis Schroder and Nic Claxton show against the Bulls tonight. Chicago has allowed the most assists per game to opposing point guards (11.06) in the entire NBA and Schroder is going to have the ball in his hands a ton in what should be an up-tempo affair against the team with the Association’s 2nd-worst Defensive Rating (118.4).
Schroder had seven assists on 14 potential assists in the first and only meeting between these teams this season, but Simmons had 11 assists on 14 potential assists of his own in that one. With the oft-injured Simmons likely sitting on the second half of this back-to-back, I wouldn’t be shocked if Schroder gets into the elite range of 20ish potential assists in this one, which should allow him to get over 6.5 helpers. He's gone over this mark in four of his last five games without even factoring in the injuries around him tonight.
Nets C Nic Claxton Double-Double vs. Bulls (+100, Caesars)
The Bulls have allowed 25.34 points per game to opposing centers (3rd-most in the NBA) along with 14.31 rebounds per contest. Chicago allows an NBA-high 58.5 points in the paint per game and back on November 1, Claxton went 6-of-8 shooting for 12 points with nine boards, but saw a team-high 16 rebounding chances in that one. (Simmons had eight rebounds on 12 rebounding chances, so he should take on some of that volume in his absence.)
Averaging 8.5 points and 7.6 rebounds per contest, I love Claxton’s upside to get into double-digit points and rebounds, especially on the glass. He averages 13.7 rebounding chances per game, but if Simmons, Finney-Smith, Johnson, and Williams sit out, 33.9 rebounding chances per game will be missing. Like Schroder’s assists, he should see 20ish rebounding chances if he plays around 30 minutes and stays out of foul trouble in this matchup.
Bulls PG Josh Giddey Over 11.5 Rebounds + Assists vs. Nets (-130, DraftKings)
I don’t expect much defense to be played in this one. Giddey has gone over this mark in four of his last five starts and nine of his last 13. In his last meeting against the Nets, he posted six rebounds (on 10 rebounding chances) and eight assists (on 14 potential assists) in 33 minutes. Since the Nets rank 24th in Defensive Rating and will be shorthanded offensively, this should be a matchup where Giddey should thrive. In five of the last six games in which he played 30-plus minutes this season, he’s gone over this mark. Act as soon as you can on this one; I wouldn’t be shocked if it closes at 12.5 or even 13.5.
Pelicans PG Dejounte Murray Over 32.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists vs. Hawks (-125, DraftKings)
Revenge game alert! Murray is going to face off against the team that traded him in the offseason (in Atlanta) and will benefit individually from the absences of Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, Jordan Hawkins, Herbert Jones and Jose Alvarado. This is going to be an up-tempo, back-and-forth game and I fully expect Murray to be ultra aggressive as his team’s main offensive creator alongside CJ McCollum and Trey Murphy. You can get this very juiced up at 31.5 over at BetMGM or opt for this price tag over at DraftKings. It’s as high as 33.5 elsewhere.
Related
