The excitement of an NBA game often starts with the first basket, and wagering on who scores it adds an extra layer of anticipation for bettors. By analyzing tip-off trends, defensive matchups, and individual player stats, we’ve identified three value-driven first-basket picks for tonight’s action. Let’s dive into why Jaylen Brown, Nic Claxton, and Jaden McDaniels stand out as prime candidates to strike first.
Jaylen Brown (+450, DraftKings)
The Heat has the edge in tip-offs, winning 55.6% compared to Boston’s 40%. But I still like Jaylen Brown to score first tonight.
Why? Brown has taken the first shot in 26.7% of Celtics games this season—the highest rate of anyone on the floor. He’s already hit the first basket three times, making him a strong option to strike early again.
Editor’s note: Brown is currently questionable due to an illness.
Nic Claxton (+750, DraftKings)
The Bulls’ defense is in shambles, ranking dead last in the league. If Brooklyn wins the tip—which they’ve done in four of their last six games—they’re in a great spot to score first. Chicago has allowed their opponent to score first in 86% of games this year, and half of those buckets have gone to centers.
Claxton has been consistent, scoring Brooklyn’s first basket in 29% of games this season. With so many Nets players questionable tonight, Claxton feels like a solid pick against a struggling Chicago defense.
Jaden McDaniels (+750, DraftKings)
McDaniels shares the highest first-shot rate on the Timberwolves (16.7%) with Anthony Edwards, but he comes with much better value at +750 compared to Edwards’ +500. McDaniels has already notched two first baskets this season, just behind Edwards’ three.
Minnesota wins the tip 52.6% of the time, while the Lakers only take the opening possession 45% of the time. If the Wolves grab the ball first, McDaniels feels like a great value play to get on the board early.
Related
