The Iron Bowl is always going to attract a lot of attention, regardless of how good or bad Auburn and Alabama are each year. Generally they are always pretty good football teams, but this season there is going to be a little less “oomph” in this rivalry. The Tigers are just 5-6 and the best thing they are playing for is a chance at a bowl game. Alabama is all but eliminated from playoff contention after their third loss of the season last weekend. So, the stakes aren’t particularly high for these two teams since both aren’t winning a title this year. Will that reduce the betting handle on it? I find that unlikely.
Auburn managed one of the bigger upsets of last weekend in college football, beating Texas A&M at home 43-41 in a thriller, and effectively ending their playoff hopes as well. I say it was a big upset, but the Tigers were just +2.5 underdogs, so it really wasn’t that large of an upset to many of us. Auburn was one of the larger sharp plays last week, as public squares were all over the ranked team under a field goal against a 4-6 unranked Tiger team. Now, they have to go to Alabama (8-3) to take on the Crimson Tide.
As I just mentioned, Alabama has lost three games this season already, which is unprecedented for a program with the amount of prestige they have. Losing Nick Saban as head coach obviously was going to hurt the team since he is a Hall of Fame legend, but the drop off wasn’t supposed to be as crazy when they hired Kalen DeBoer from Washington. DeBoer brought the Huskies to the National Championship last season and has widely been regarded as one of the best up and coming coaches in the game. His first taste of SEC action has netted him an 8-3 record, which normally isn’t something to balk at for most programs. However, Alabama isn't like most programs. The expectations in Tuscaloosa are always sky high, and he has failed to meet them this season.
This will be DeBoer’s first Iron Bowl as head coach of the Tide, so we will have to see how he handles it. If I was him, I’d realize that at this point I have nothing to lose since they have already secured a bowl game and aren’t making the Playoff. The pressure should be off at this point, and they aren’t going to fire him after one season. I expect them to play loose and free as if they didn’t have any burden on their shoulders. That typically isn’t going to be good news for Auburn, as this is a prime spot for Alabama to bounce back.
As I expected, 57% of the current handle is on Auburn to cover the large +11.5 spread in this game. After their upset win, people start to like them again getting so many points, especially against an opponent who just had a bad loss like the Tide did. I would keep an eye out on where the money is going until we get to Saturday afternoon, as we are still early in the week as I write this.
Honestly, I’ll be waiting to bet on this one. Games like this are very volatile in terms of where the cash will end up going. I’d lean Alabama to have a smash spot at home, but we will see.
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