Welcome to the first edition of Big Will Bets: Weekend Winners in college football and the NFL. Each week for the rest of the season I will find my favorite plays for Saturday and Sunday and pass the winnings on to you! Now, let’s jump into my favorite plays for the week.
Zag of the Week: #21 Oklahoma -2.5 vs. Auburn
Everyone just watched Oklahoma get their teeth kicked in on national television last week against Tennessee at home. The offense couldn’t move the ball and they had to make a change at QB during the game. When you look at their previous wins, it’s pretty clear that Oklahoma struggled offensively and they were taken into deep water with Tulane and Houston. So why would I take them?
Because Auburn absolutely STINKS! Auburn’s offense has multiple turnovers in every game this year and this Oklahoma defense just held the fifth-ranked team in the country to 345 yards, despite being on the field for 35:41 of game time. Oh, and they caused two turnovers. They will get after this Auburn offense and create multiple turnovers in this game. Plus, I love nothing more in this world than listening to Hugh Freeze blame others for his losses.
Oklahoma -2.5.
Playoff Elimination Game of the Week: #23 Kansas State -5.5 vs. #20 Oklahoma State
In the beginning of the season, it would have been crazy to say that in Week 5 we would get a playoff elimination game but, with how well the top teams in the SEC and Big Ten have looked, the Big 12 might only get one team (the conference champion) in the playoff. Right now both Oklahoma State and Kansas State are coming off their first Big 12 loss and neither can afford another loss if they want to stay in the hunt for a Big 12 Title.
Kansas State is coming off of a shocking upset loss to BYU last week on the road. I call it shocking because, aside from turnovers and a punt return TD, K State largely played well. They had more total yards and had 137 more rushing yards in this game. In fact, the Wildcats have not had a game this year where they didn’t run for more yards than their opponent did.
Oklahoma State is coming off a three point loss to Utah that was never that close. The Utes dominated that game from start to finish and the Cowboys scored 16 points in the 4th quarter to make it appear closer than it actually was. Utah dominated this game on the ground despite Oklahoma State knowing that was all they could do with QB Cam Rising out.
Kansas State will turn to their run game to win this game against Oklahoma State. It is their best strength and the Cowboys’ greatest weakness.
Kansas State -5.5.
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What Am I Missing? Game of the Week: Vikings +2.5 vs. Packers
The Vikings are 3-0 on the year and while that might be surprising, the ways they have won haven’t been flukey. They dominated the Giants 28-6, handled business against the 49ers 23-17, and whipped the Texans 34-7. Sam Darnold finally looks like the top three pick most expected him to be out of USC and the defense has confused two of the best offenses in the league.
They’re now going up against the Packers who have looked good the last two weeks, but they were playing a Colts team that can’t stop the run and Will Levis who finds new ways each week to turn the ball over in hilariously stupid ways.
Even if Jordan Love returns this week for the Packers, he won’t be mobile, and the defense can tee off on him in the pocket. So why are the Vikings not the favorites?
If this is a trap game, I’ll fall for the trap and bet the Vikings +2.5.
Defense Wins Championships Game of the Week: Steelers -1.5 vs. Colts
This might be the ultimate Mike Tomlin coached team. Their defense is insane, only giving up 33 points on the year, and the offense doesn’t turn the ball over (can’t believe I’m saying that about a team lead by Justin Fields) which puts them in a position to win each week.
On the other side, Anthony Richardson is completing passes at under 50% (49.3%) and has already thrown six interceptions this year. This is not a good combo to have when going up against this version of the Steel Curtain. Defensively, they struggle stopping the run, already having given up two 200 yard games on the ground to the Texans and the Packers. That’s a bad weakness to have against a run first team like Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh will play to their strengths this weekend against the Colts. Defensively, they will terrorize Anthony Richardson and cause multiple turnovers, while on offense they will pound the rock and impose their will on the Colts D. Bet the Steelers -1.5.
If you would like to see more of my gambling picks for college football and the NFL, you can find me on X and Instagram @willortner. Feel free to give your boy a follow. So far this season I am 9-5 in college football (is that good?) and 1-0 in my last 1 in the NFL (it doesn’t get better than that)! Good luck this week and may the sports gambling gods be in your favor!
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