Week 3 of the college football season offers a couple of exciting opportunities for bettors looking for high-value underdogs. While big-name teams may look solid on paper, some under-the-radar programs have the potential to surprise. Below are two upset alert picks that offer generous odds and solid betting value on BetMGM and FanDuel.
Oregon State (2-0) ML at #9 Oregon (2-0): +550, BetMGM
Dillon Gabriel and Oregon are off to a 2-0 start, but they haven’t exactly dominated. In their first game, they beat Idaho 24-14 as 49.5-point favorites and then last week, they barely got by Boise State by the score of 37-34 as 17.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, Oregon State beat Idaho State 38-15 in Week 1 (as 29-point favorites) and shut out San Diego State 21-0 last week (as 5.5-point favorites). The Beavers allowed just 179 yards to San Diego State last week and racked up 520 and then 420 yards offensively in their first two contests.
Playing on their home field, Oregon State is certainly going to try to establish the run. So far, they’ve attempted just 41 passes compared to 109 rushes and RB duo Jam Griffin (38 carries, 249 yards, 3 TD) and Anthony Hankerson (40 carries, 226 yards, 3 TD) will be heavily utilized. Oregon allowed 221 rushing yards last week, including 192 and three touchdowns to Ashton Jeanty.
Oregon hasn’t won in Corvallis since 2018, losing in 2020 and 2022, and the sold-out Reser Stadium is going to be rocking, giving Oregon State a clear home-field advantage. I absolutely love the price and think the Ducks should be on upset alert.
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New Mexico State (1-1) ML at Fresno State (1-1): +920, FanDuel
Fresno State lost to Michigan 30-10 in Week 1 and then beat FCS program Sacramento State 46-30 in Week 2, but I think they could have some trouble with New Mexico State in Week 3. The Aggies beat FCS Southeast Missouri State in Week 1, but then nearly pulled off a home upset against Liberty last week, falling 30-24. In fact, it took a 21-point fourth quarter for Liberty to come back at the end of that contest. They held Liberty to go 1-for-11 on third downs and were similarly stingy in that regard in Week 1, allowing SEMO to go 5-for-16 in that situation. Holding opponents to just a 22.2% conversion rate, the Aggies rank among FBS programs in third-down conversion percentage.
New Mexico State running back Monte Watkins has track speed and had a 64-yard touchdown catch last week and has big-play ability every time he touches the football. (He had separate 78 and 80-yard touchdown runs last year as well.)
These two schools were in the Western Athletic Conference from 2005-2011 and previously in the Big West from 1984-1991, so the programs are familiar with each other. First-year head coach Tony Sanchez brought in 36 transfers to New Mexico State in the offseason, which was the fifth-highest mark in FBS. On the other side, Fresno State also has a first-year head coach, Tim Skipper, and after allowing 30 points to Sacramento State last week, I have some interest in New Mexico State at +920 odds.
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