Week 4 of the college football season showcased some dramatic line movement that had bettors scrambling to adjust their picks before kickoff. While betting line shifts often signal where the sharp money is going, it doesn’t always guarantee a winning play. In games like Purdue vs. Oregon State, following the heavy line movement led to disappointing results. On the other hand, the total in Marshall vs. Ohio State moved by a full touchdown before the game, and those who followed the over trend were rewarded. Let’s break down how these movements impacted outcomes and what we can learn for future bets.
Purdue vs. Oregon State Proves You Can’t Always Trust Line Movement
A lot of people like to bet on where the money and tickets are going in a game, following the line movement as clearly books are taking some big wagers on one side to move the number. Sometimes, that can be a profitable endeavor, but it also can put you in the red if it becomes too much of a liability for the sportsbooks. One of the biggest line movements this week was in the Purdue vs. Oregon State game this week in college football, where the Beavers opened as a -6 favorite that got pushed down so far to where they closed as just a -1 favorite before kickoff. That is a huge amount of line movement, a full five points coming off the opening number, which is significant going through the key of 3.
Unfortunately, it did not go so well for the people who followed that movement in Purdue’s direction. They got demolished on the road 38-21 in a game that wasn’t even as close as that final score would make you think. Both teams looked terrible the week before, with Oregon State getting crushed by Oregon and Purdue getting railroaded by Notre Dame at home. My guess is that some sharps slammed the Boilermakers off of that awful performance, as the public perception of them would be very low on the road here. Turns out, they were right, and Hudson Card’s team is quite bad.
Total Soars In Ohio State vs. Marshall
While following the line movement in the Oregon State game didn’t pay off, following the movement on the total in this game certainly did. This total opened up at 50.5, and the over immediately got hammered, flying up the chart until it finally settled at 57.5 at most places when the game kicked off. That is a full touchdown of line movement, which is absolutely wild, and the books got hammered on this one which clearly opened at the wrong number. Even worse for them, it ended up losing anyway when the Buckeyes ripped Marshall 49-14.
The total had gone over in both of Ohio State’s first two games, with them racking up over 50 points in each by themselves. With how well the Thundering Herd had performed against the spread to this point (2-0), I think there was a reasonable expectation that they could at least score a touchdown or two here against a very good Buckeye defense. They came through for bettors and this total snuck over the 57 mark because of it. I personally didn’t bet the game, but since everyone and their brother was on Ohio State to cover, I probably should have taken Marshall. That also would correlate with an over bet in most cases.
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