Week 10 of college football was packed with surprises, especially for public bettors who heavily backed Kansas State and Georgia, only to watch one stumble and the other struggle to cover. Meanwhile, the Indiana Hoosiers delivered an easy cover to the delight of many. Let’s dive into how public betting trends shaped up, with an in-depth look at the weekend's most popular picks, unexpected outcomes, and how sportsbooks fared amidst the action.
Houston Stuns Kansas State and Public Bettors
Week 10 of the college football season is in the books, and with it, we can look back to see how well the most public bets did over the weekend. A public bet is a side that is getting at least 51% of the total tickets written on the game. This means a majority of bettors are on this side, making it a public play. This does not take into account the money, or if the sportsbook has liability on it or not.
In Week 10, the most public spread was Kansas State -13 against the Houston Cougars. A whopping 86% of tickets written on the spread were backing the Wildcats to lay the hammer down on poor Houston.
Well, that certainly didn’t happen. In fact, Houston ended up winning the game outright in one of the biggest upsets of the entire weekend. Coming into the game, Houston was 3-5 and taking on the No. 17 ranked team in the country, sitting at 7-1. No one gave them a chance at home, but never underestimate a team that everyone is betting against. More often than not, you’ll get burned siding with that team.
Indiana Just Keeps Covering, Much To The Public’s Liking
While the public certainly felt that Kansas State loss in their bank account, they managed to get it back with the Indiana Hoosiers, who were on the road to take on the Michigan State Spartans. Indiana has become the Detroit Lions of the NFL, a team that the square bettors can’t get enough of that just continues to cover no matter the line.
In Week 10, they were the second biggest public side, getting 79% of all tickets to be written on them to cover against Sparty.
At first, it seemed like this would be a contest, as Michigan State went up early on the Hoosiers. However, that did not last very long, as Indiana’s explosive offense kicked into high gear and ripped the Spartan secondary to bits in an eventual 47-10 thrashing. After the first quarter, in which Michigan State led 10-0, it was not a contest. The public certainly liked this outcome.
Before the games this weekend, I wrote about a quote from BetMGM’s Michael Ranftle: “The Big Ten will determine our weekend. Ohio State covering in Happy Valley against Penn State is what we need the most. An upset by either Michigan or Michigan State as big home underdogs would be massive.”
Unfortunately for the books, only the Buckeyes managed to cover.
Georgia Wins a Sloppy Game, But Florida Just Barely Covers for the Books
The third most lopsided game in terms of public betting this weekend was the Georgia Bulldogs laying -14.5 at home against the Florida Gators. 75% of spread tickets written in this game at BetMGM were on Georgia to cover.
This public side looked completely dead for a majority of the game. The game was tied 20-20 midway through the fourth quarter, and the Bulldogs never had been able to establish a real lead to that point. They got up 27-20 with just four minutes to go, and the Gators were looking to drive and tie it up. However, a late interception by Florida’s backup QB, who was in because their starter got injured, gave the Bulldogs an easy short field touchdown. It started to get sweaty for the books and sharps at that point, but a 34-20 win covered for Florida and sank the public.
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